Does anyone in Iowa (likely caucus voters) read Slog?

Let's hope so. Edwards is the one with the best policies.

I like Edwards and Obama, so this is good.

Bad analogy, Josh. The surface transit option never won an election.

Why is the weather (supposedly) such a big factor in the Iowa caucuses? In the Kos post, the writer talks about how old Clinton's supporters are and how vulnerable they are to bad weather. I grew up in Iowa and rarely did the weather slow anything down. We had to have at least 6 inches of snow to get school canceled. And anyway, with global warming, Iowa only gets a few snowfalls a year anymore. I don't buy it.

Josh, Mark Penn called for you. He'd like his ludicrous spin machine back.

@4 - I thought that was the broader point of his analogy.

Uh, Feit, I believe Obama has a more extensive network than Clinton of people who have previously attended caucuses--a fair piece of "on-the-ground machinery." The more pressing question: What are you missing in your peripheral vision that's being blocked by Hillary's thighs? And does Bill know about it? Maybe they're kinkier than we thought. If he asks you to wear a blue dress, you'll know you've made it. Good luck!

This post contradicts a lot of what I've read. From the New Yorker piece on Obama to many other sources, it seems that Obama has a highly complex, organized ground machine working for him while Hillary relies on a lot of hype and soft support.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/11/26/071126fa_fact_lizza

Technically, even if Cary Moon is a wonderful person and super hot as well, Surface Transit did not "win" our election. Except by default, in that neither of the other two options won (one crushed - Tunnel, one defeated - Viaduct).

But Sen Edwards will make a fine VP for Sen Obama, as will any of the other candidates. Sen Clinton will be a great US Supreme Court Justice, of course.

Every so often I step back and think, "Why are we letting Iowa -- IOWA, of all places -- decide who the rest of us will get to vote for?!"

Ahem. Carry on.

I was on another site and they had one of those click-and-vote deals. The question was "Can Edwards win Iowa?" The choices were definitely, probably, probably not and definitely not. They broke it down by state. The highest vote at 31% in Washington was probably not although a majority (combining Defininitly and Probably) thought he would win. Tellingly the folks in Iowa thought he would Definitely win.

You mean like they thought all the other losing Presidential candidates will win? Yeah ... even New Hampshire only is good at predicting who will win the party's nomination, not the Presidency.

So, I am in Iowa and Hillary's machine is severely lacking. Recently, she had trouble filling a room in Des Moines. If that wasn't bad enough, as has been reported elsewhere, Hillary's supporters are less familiar with the caucus process (they are new caucus participants) than Edwards or Obama supporters. I am sure much of this is derived from the Clinton's lack of a political network in the state. Frmr. Governor Vilsack has criticized the organization of the Clinton campaign. Gordon Fischer, former state party chair, is now saying the Clinton campaign is no longer saying they will win. The campaign has gone so far as to tell staff to no longer predict a Clinton victory. This is a far cry from a year ago when Clinton was selling her inevitability. I do think Edwards has a good operation, but looking around, you don't see too many Edwards yard signs.

In fact, I haven't seen one yet. Unlike Seattle, where lazy candidates can just put signs wherever. Political signs can't be put in public right of ways. Thus, campaigns use yard signs as an indicator of support among real people. It's hard to say who will win on January 3rd, but I think there is a real chance Hillary could come in third place. She has been focusing on the population centers and while that makes for good crowds it may not be enough to win. Rural precincts have as much delegate influence as urban precincts and you win the caucuses by wining delegates. Edwards and Obama have been mining rural Iowa for support and have been doing a good job at it. Don't count out Joe Biden. There are enough Catholic Democrats in Iowa to make him a surprise second or third.

If I had to pick a winner I would pick Obama with 30%.

Hillary Clinton WILL be the President in 2009.

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