Comments on The Expectations Game

Blahblahblah.

Of course -- Iowa has been neck and neck for a while.

MEanwhile, can Obama win in the states needed to get 277 votes in the electoral college ?

Thius is what Daily Kos says about Kentuckey:
Surveyy USA. 11/9-11. Registered voters. MoE 4.2% (10/17 results)

Giuliani (R) 44 (45)
Clinton (D) 48 (47)

Romney (R) 39 (41)
Clinton (D) 54 (50)

Huckabee (R) 36 (39)
Clinton (D) 55 (49)

McCain (R) 47 (49)
Clinton (D) 48 (45)

Giuliani (R) 52
Obama (D) 38

Romney (R) 44
Obama (D) 43

Huckabee (R) 42
Obama (D) 44

McCain (R) 56
Obama (D) 34

Kentucky is a southern (sort of) red state. Clinton is a centrist; Obama leans more to the left on most issues. Of course she is going to do better than him in the polls. I am actually more interested in how the Democratic nominee (whoever that may be) will do in the larger battleground states like Florida and Ohio. Pennsylvania and Michigan are also large states where things were close in the last two elections, and even smaller close-call states like Iowa and New Mexico may make the difference. The Daily Kos article said Obama gets crushed in Ohio by the major GOP candidates, but the Survey USA link only had the Kentucky data provided by @2 above.

The real surprise is how well Hillary does against the R's in Kentucky. Count me among those who originally thought she couldn't win in the general because she is so despised by the hard core rednecks who, as we saw in 2004, outnumber the rest of us. I am still reluctant to believe the Electoral College results a year from now will play out for a Democratic victory if Hillary is the one, but I could be wrong--I often am.