The Sierra Club's exit poll? Wow! That's about as credible as the Sierra Club itself.
And hey, Erica, read a dictionary and learn the difference between "rebut" and "refute," will you? Your usage is about as bad as what you try to pass off as journalism.
Today's WSJ tried to pass off the defeat of Prop. 1 as an anti-tax message. Maybe SLOG should set out the true facts for it.
Congrats Assholes! Hope you're happy that I'm never going to see a regional mass-transit system in my lifetime.
I hope you all enjoy being stuck in gridlock in Mike O'Brien's Pathfinder.
Is this your effort to brag about your collective success in killing what will likely be the only reasonable chance we get at having light rail sometime before Halley's Comet reappears?
Well ... yeah. Congratulations on that and all.
I would like to see the Sierra Club's methodology. First and foremost, does this "exit poll" include the folks that voted by mail, which was a huge percentage of the electorate? Does anyone know?
Actually, I think the Sierra Club hired an external polling firm to do the poll.
And I agree that the WSJ is incorrectly classifying our vote, just as they did on Monday and on Tuesday.
The problem is that most analysis is paid for by firms in Texas, which tend to assume that Oil Is Good, and that Voters Want Fewer Taxes For The Rich.
Will - just shut the fuck up. You thought this thing losing was a good thing, and you think Gore's gonna run for president. You live in a delusion, and until you start taking your medication, you need to shut the fuck up.
Gee thanks, Willis. I'll be sure to send you flowers too. What color do you want?
I for one am happy Prop 1 was defeated. Clearly is was the unnatural and unholy merger of roads and transit. I mean did you SEE the hard hitting video the Stranger posted asking if roads and transit were married were they also having sex? Now THAT is real life honest journalism.
If the Stranger says to do it we should just do it. Ask no questions. Just do it and agree with them.
Of course you uncritically swallow the Sierra Club spin that they were the kingmakers in the election, without linking to the results. I wish that were the case. But let's do some math:
just 11 percent voted ďyesĒ because of roads alone.
11% of 44% approval = 4.8% that wouldn't have voted for a package that didn't include roads.
You say 6% would have switched their vote to "yes" if the roads were gone. So,
44% + 6% - 4.8% = 45.2%.
Sounds like a winner to me!
Dude, unless you just took your meds, you need to STFU.
You're an endless stream of delusional babble. Because of morons like you, I might never see a true regional mass transit system in the area in my lifetime. I really hope you're happy. Prick.
So, MHD, that means the results must be available online, right?
Maybe if we just ask politely, ECB will post the results link so we can all read them.
RTM: Here are some "true facts" from my post: "The largest groupó45 percentóvoted against it mainly because they didnít want higher taxes, and another 19 percent were opposed to specific projects."
And Ivan: From my Word dictionary: "Refute: To prove something to be false or somebody to be in error through logical argument or by providing evidence to the contrary." In other words, exactly what I meant.
I will never send the Sierra Club another dime.
And, Dave Dela was right. They are a bunch of white people snobs.
And Rossi should feel really good now.
Kemper Freeman and his money buddies won.
Well, catch you at the RTID meeting tonight, Willis.
rorry, it's Della. He lost on Tuesday as well.
Ask nicely and you shall receive: http://cascade.sierraclub.org/node/1685.
And yes, it was an outside firm.
@ 12:" Because of morons like you, I might never see a true regional mass transit system in the area in my lifetime."
well you might want to call the waaaambulance about that. now go do something constructive about it.
whiney punk-ass troll.
@18 - thanks, ECB!
Wonder what else we can find from the details ...
Will. You have devolved into the most irritating troll the past few months. Your posts remind me of shit head younger siblings that would ENDLESSLY irritate everyone in earshot with constant shit head blathering..
Want some flowers? What color? Della lost, too! I know you are but what am i? say it don\'t spray it! neiner neiner neiner!
Little kids do that shit because one time, a LONG TIME AGO, they probably said something that a few people thought was witty and funny. So they chase that dream over, and over, and over again. And they think they\'re just as funny. While everyone else wants to stab themselves in the eye with a pen.
Maybe you should take a break from slog and get reacquainted with reality. For real. Or start with baby steps. When you have the urge to post a comment, deny yourself once for every two urges. Please.
What I don't get is why the Sierra Club thinks mass transit is supposed to be anti-enviro. Wouldn't getting a bunch of cars off the road be pro-enviro? The Sierra Club seems dim-witted coming out against something that reduces air pollution.
@21 - why thank you for the kind advice.
Thanks for the link Erica.
The transit only question seems to be phrased fairly:
"If the transit part of proposition one was on the ballot by itself, how would you vote?"
52% yes, 36% no, 12% undecided.
What I don't get is where the 6% figure comes from?
- 19% of no voters (55%) opposed it for the environment/global warming = 11% of voters
- 52% of all voters would have voted for transit only = 6%
but that assumes that NO voters were split 52/48 on a transit only package, which is almost certainly not the case.
The Sierra Club claims the 6% figure in their memo. Is there some data we're not seeing?
At any rate, it doesn't seem like all the breakouts add up to that 52% figure -- I guess that's polling for you.
This is moderately encouraging to transit fans.
Baby steps. That your reply included only a hint of snark, I think we're making progress. We can get through this together. There is another life outside of shit-head-dom.
So here's an exericse. I'm going to click "post" and when I check back later when I get home from work, I won't see a reply. Deny every other urge, remember! It's your mantra.
Ok! We can do this! ::POST::
Erica @ 14:
This self-justifying exercise didn't prove shit, and don't claim that it did. I do not care that you have a position. I do care that you continue to insult your readers' intelligence.
The conclusion that you reach from the "evidence" that this polling data provides might appear to REBUT the notion that people won't accept tolls, but it certainly does not REFUTE it.
@22 - The Sierra Club was for mass transit, they just said it didn't make sense to build a bunch of roads too. It doesn't do you any good to take some cars off the road if you're just going to replace them with more cars.
I think this poll is great and should tell us what we all should have remembered from 1995/1996 - You can ONLY get mass transit when it's not loaded down with a bunch of roads.
They oversampled Seattle.
The Sierra Club doesn't know what they're talking about and I bet their sample was horribly narrow in scope.
The reason it failed in all three counties was the suburban disdain for the MVET and the extended taxation and construction. No one in the suburbs wanted to pay the MVET and taxes for 5 decades, just for more construction and a rail line.
Also, I want the old Will in Seattle back, the one who intelligently gave his points and didn't need to talk trash... not this assbag troll he's become in the last week.
I had an e-friend that read my blog who, just like you, Will, suddenly, spontaneously out of nowhere became this uber-bitch of an obnoxious troll, who couldn't go five mintues without talking shit and insulting people, and eventually I had to cut her off. She at least had the excuse that she cancer that had gone into remission and was taking meds that may have affected her brain chemistry.
I'd hope that's not your excuse, and that you're just having a bad week at work and need some sleep or something.
Here's what the "enviros" accomplished: population and commerce will find more favorable habitat in less dense, less environmentally-sensitive juridictions. Outmigration and differential growth will result in net additions of GHG's.
I donated to the Sierra Club once. They then proceeded to flood me with fundraising calls and sold my information to every other nonprofit under the sun. I have not donated to them since.
You can see for yourself what the sample is by clicking on the link, but I assume you won't, so here it is:
Rest of King County: 1998
30% over sample in Seattle.
They didn't even asked if they had voted, at least by the questions they show.
RonK - why won't they move to PP = Perfect Portland and lower GHG?
Also, Snohomish was undersampled:
233K ballots cast, 3248 polled
63K ST2/RTID (3.8:1), 646 polled (5.0:1)
(90K in RTID-only)
The data is completely bogus because it's not representative of the electorate.
1) The sample size is wrong, Seattle is over counted more than 2:1 against snohomish county
2) The polling did not include absentee voters
3) The polling was not done geographically represnetatively. Voters in Federal Way and Bothel are both "rest of King County" but have different opinions.
It's just trash stats to make it look like they did the right thing, and only a fool would believe them.
It's a phone robo-poll, so there's no reason it would discriminate against absentees.
But the other objections seem valid.
ECB - what are you thinking?
"Even more interesting: A strong plurality (47 percent) of people who were opposed to specific projects cited extension of light rail to Tacoma as their number-one concern. The other light rail extension (to Microsoft) didnít make the list."
Look at the question they asked - MSFT wasn't a choice.
Which specific project are you most concerned about? The cross-base highway in Pierce County,
incomplete funding of 520 bridge replacement, 520 widening through the UW arboretum, extension
of light rail to Tacoma, or something else?
Well, anyway, Prop 1 didn't pass.
If this means more people will wake up and try to get more involved in making this happen -- meaning attending more public meetings and such -- then we might have a solution that's trimmer and would make people as happy. Yes, that's being very idealistic, but the whole point of "FUCK YOU STRANGER. FUCK YOU SIERRA CLUB" is pretty pointless now.
Start talking with other people in town or start your own efforts to help get light rail into King County, which seems to be a reasonable domain.
If it means we have to wait until 2009, so be it. There are a lot of things people are (hopefully) looking forward to in 2009. Maybe by then, Snohomish and Pierce counties will realize they want light rail sugar too.
Yeah, and unless they pick "something else", all the rail-haters have no choice but to pick the Tacoma line as their target. All the others are road projects. That just happens to be the segment Sierra Club is opposed to.
Sounds like an accurate poll to me considering the results of the actual election are the same as what the poll reports or am I missing something?
Phone Robo-poll? That HUGELY skews the results because only those who care will bother with the poll.
Also, Sierra club only asked about the Tacoma extension because that the shit they were against. They didn't ask about MSFT because they all fucking work there and those rich eastsiders give them so much money while they drive SUVs and never take the bus.
The other thing about a robo-phone poll is that the first question is always answered more often than the last because many people will not wait to hear all options.
@42, You're wrong on just about everything. Instead of imagining what's in the crosstabs, please read them.
This poll is worthless. The Sierra Club, like Sims and ECB and Co. that work for the Stranger, want all of the $ to go to transit...in the city of Seattle. And they want everybody else to pay for it. That's why the question was in there about Tacoma.
It's a horseshit Seattle-centric view of the region that's going nowhere fast.
I believe that other groups will be releasing polling data/analysis in the coming weeks. It will be interesting to see whether the Sierra Club data sticks. If it does, then perhaps the election outcome won't be as bad as I feared. I think a key consideration for most of us in deciding how to vote on this was our reading of the political environment in the 3 counties. The pro-transit people who voted no were taking a big gamble that we would be able to get a significantly better package passed within the next few years. I was and am skeptical about this, but this polling data gives me at least a little hope that I was wrong.
Who answers and humors robo-calls these days? You're dealing with an awfully skewed sample no mater what.
The analysis was done by these guys, http://www.rtstrategies.com/index_files/Partners.htm.
They are the pollsters for the Cook Political Report, and have conducted polls for the Associated Press, Business Week, CBS News, NBC News, Newsweek, the Orlando Sentinel and the Wall Street Journal.
I can't imagine they have much interest in damaging their credibility just to help the Sierra Club. Them's good numbers.
Erica--I have great respect for you as a journalist and as a person. I admire your courage in taking tough stands. But I have to say that the Prop. 1 campaign and your responses make me question my view. It seems that when you and the Stranger get in jihad mode on transit that you fail basic journalistic responsibilities. To report an exit poll! commissioned by the Sierra Club! that dramatically overcounts Seattle voters! as evidence that your position swung the election is beneath you.
When you were at the Weekly you witnessed the relentless attacks on Sound Transit from the Stranger over its first five difficult years. The Stranger covered Sound Transit intensely up until 2002, when they went as far as to support Tim Eyman's Initiative 776 to disband Sound Transit. Then as you moved to The Stranger, the paper ignored ST and switched to uncritically boosting the incompetents running the SMP. You posted most of the little analysis on their actions in the paper, but it was far too little, far too late to save them. I don't get it, why the lack of tough questions when they did silly things like promising an opening date (Dec 17, 2007!), hiring Joel Horn to run the SMP, and that goofy, goofy board they had? Now the Stranger has not sent a reporter to a Sound Transit board meeting in five years.
Now you have opposed Prop. 1 and won, I guess. But this is far from the result that Mike O'Brien and the Sierra Club board wanted. They wanted a narrow election that showed that they tipped the balance away from roads and towards transit. What they got instead is a universal rejection by wide margins of both roads and transit in all three counties of a large tax package.
To buy Erica's argument that the Sierra Club and the Stranger made a difference you would have to believe that Seattle voters actually made a difference. But even if Seattle had voted 80% for Prop. 1 it would have lost.
This is a useless poll. The Sierra Club clearly hired a pollster to bolster their position post-election. Any business wants to please their client. The fact that they didn't even sample representative numbers of our regional electorate is damning. I am surprised you would even post it as relevant.
So--still waiting for the Stranger/Sierra Club plan...good luck passing it at the ballot box...
Will @ 28
Please do the math yourself before you make such an ass out of yourself publicly.
You quote your buddy Daimajin saying the poll oversampled Seattle - arguing Seattle should be 20% instead of 25%.
He did the math wrong. You repeated his mistake without checking yourself.
RTA District (Portions of King, Pierce & Snohomish Counties) = 381,860 ballots cast to date
Seattle = 94,848 ballots cast to date
That works out to be 24.84%. The RT Strategies survey had it at 24.98%.
Yeah, they were off. 14/100ths of a percentage point.
Care to defend your math, Will?
You're comparing COMPLETELY different measures. By your count more than half the voters in King county are in Seattle.
Tommy @ 50:
You wrote: "To report an exit poll commissioned by the Sierra Club that dramatically overcounts Seattle voters as evidence that your position swung the election is beneath you."
Tommy, see the facts above. You are simply flat out wrong. The Seattle sample was representative to 14/100ths of a percentage point.
You used dead wrong information to attack Erica, as well as a respected national pollster, and you made an ass out of yourself to boot.
Just apologize for your mistake and get it over with.
You say "By your count more than half the voters in King county are in Seattle."
What are you talking about?
Erica posted the sample above, but here it is again.
Are they teaching math in schools any more?
You have developed a very tough hide. This is a pretty ugly thread. Thanks for your work in putting up exit poll data.
I think there are at least a couple of conflicting sets of assumptions floating around. There is a basic disagreement about whether building more roads improves or creates traffic congestion. There is a basic disagreement about whether global climate change is occurring, and whether there is still time to act. Finally, there is the complication that Washington has unique limitations that prevent Seattle and King County from acting substantially alone to effect meaningful mass transit.
I happen to believe that roads cause congestion. So preventing the roads component in and of itself was a good thing, whether or not the transit was passed. I happen to think most of the state is heavily subsidized by Seattle, and that trend is only increasing. So I see no need to cozy up to certain rural interests. I think it's better to stop underwriting their lavish subsidies.
But I don't feel a need to call people who disagree with me names.
48. It doesn't matter if they intend to or not. The inherent sample of a robocall survey will always be very narrow and not tell you very much.
I answered this robo poll, but my results didn't count because I refused to enter 1 for male or 2 for female at the end of the poll.
press 1 for female, in fact I am wearing frilly underwear right now.
press 2 for male, I watch Nascar during foreplay.
press 3 for, niether, both, trans, queer, intersexed, prefer not to answer, its a bad gender day for me.
Why isn't there an option 3?
@53 I'm saying in the two links you posted, one from king county and one from washington state, aren't the same number.
If you look at the first link and compare it to the second link, if they were comparing the same thing, nearly half the voters in King County would be from Seattle. We know that's not true, so they are obviously not comparing the same thing.
They do teach math at Berkeley where I got a Master's in it.
Are you guys done arguing with reality yet? I go away for a day and you still refuse to accept that:
a. RTID/ST2 lost
b. RTID/ST2 lost mostly due to pro-enviro voters who think global warming is critical and we need to stop increasing it
c. ST2 can't get a revote and win.
News flash! ST2 can win. By itself. With the voters we have.
(now, if you continue to deny reality I'll have to dredge more stats out, but that's where we are)
Donít listen to otterpop, heís comparing two completely different numbers by cherry picking whichever countyís website makes the numbers look correct for him.
In an apples-to-apples comparison on Washington Stateís election site, there were 103914 Yes + 129151 No votes in King totalling 233065, and 38780 + 51939 totalling 90719 in Snohomish.
http://vote.wa.gov/elections/W EI/ResultsByCounty_Prop1.aspx? RaceID=100217&CountyCode=%20&R aceLevel=County&ElectionID=0&R aceTypeCode=M
Then go back the countyís site, they say that in total 286607 people voted in King County. Thatís 53,000 MORE people than the state says. In that context, the 90,000+ Seattle voters makes sense, Seattle being about a third of the countyís population.
Moral: you canít compare the two numbers like otterpop is. They are completely different. Donít listen to him, heís an idiot.
I'm not arguing that ST2 can't win on its own, I KNOW it can and eventually will someday. But I know for a fact that 25% of the voters in the region aren't from seattle, no matter how dumb-ass otterpop screws with the data.
Otter the highest vote in the city was about 84k for any one issue (they don't break out P1 by Seattle that I could find) 94k is the number of total ballots turned in. So the Seattle count is more like 21% and the poll is 26% by their crosstabs
How the pollsters would know the exact turnout before the counting is done raises a question. If this is predictive then it should be the expected turnout in 2008.
It's not a good poll.
You made 2 very understandable mistakes:
1) You assume that everyone in King County lives in the RTA (Prop 1) district. Thatís incorrect.
Hereís the map:
And here are the numbers:
997,798 registered voters in King County (286,607 voted so far - as you pointed out)
861,620 registered voters in Sound Transit (RTA) portion (245,796 voted so far)
As you can clearly see, the RTA portion comprised 86.35% of registered voters, and 85.76% of the turnout so far.
2) Youíre using numbers for the RTID boundary from Snohomish Co. All of the poll documents clearly say the sample was done in the RTA (Sound Transit) district.
From the poll memo:
ďAll of the interviews were conducted November 4-6, 2007 with a representative cross-section of voters in the Central Puget Sound Regional Transit Authority (Sound Transit) district.Ē
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c om/ABPub/2007/11/08/2004002460 .pdf
Do the math again, using the right numbers for King and Snohomish County, and tell us what you come up with.
1) You assume that everyone in King County lives in the RTA (Prop 1) district. Thatís incorrect. Hereís the map:
As you can clearly see, the RTA district only represents a portion of King County (86.35% of registered voters, and 85.76% of the turnout to be precise).
http://airline.websited.net/air/map.html >airline travel deals
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