Slog - Comments on Election Prediction http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction We're going to get a count tonight—at about 8:15—from King County Elections of about 100,000 absentee ballots. They also project that when all is said and done, about 72 percent of the total vote, which they guesstimate at 467,570, will come in absentees. (That's about 338,000). They're also going to report on the poll count at around 10:30. The poll vote is supposed to be about 28 percent of the total vote. So my sense is the 8:15 drop won't tell us a lot unless the margins are more than three points (and so says an election wonk friend of... Copyright 2008 Tue, 06 Nov 2007 17:07:09 -0800 Wed, 07 Nov 2007 10:20:18 -0800 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.34 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Comment by Spitfire Spitfire will have the results on 21 tvs and free wifi. Come join us

]]> Spitfire http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843352 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843352 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 17:11:18 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle OK, Josh, I'll leak my predictions on those measures:

Prop 1 (roads and transit) loses
Measure 67 (insurance reform) wins
4204 (simple majority for school levies) wins
Bill Sherman for KC Prosecutor. (DISAGREE - hope I'm right)

And in the City Council races:

Jean Godden
Bruce Harrell (HOPE VENUS WINS, but ...)
David Della

For Port:
Gael Tarleton (hope I'm right)
Alec Fisken

Only two where I disagree with you. Not bad!

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843357 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843357 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 17:19:33 -0800 Comment by tsm "Prop 1 (roads and transit) loses."

Wishful thinking, Josh.

]]> tsm http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843365 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843365 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 17:32:28 -0800 Comment by Mr. Poe Prop 1 will lose tsm, and you know it.

]]> Mr. Poe http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843369 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843369 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 17:38:55 -0800 Comment by SeMe exit polls have prop 1 tanking.

]]> SeMe http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843372 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843372 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 17:46:15 -0800 Comment by grznt exit polls have prop 1 tanking



link please? otherwise, nice job talking out your ass.

]]> grznt http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843375 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843375 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 17:51:09 -0800 Comment by kid icarus MOOOORTAL KOOOOOMBAT!!!
*grabs popcorn*

]]> kid icarus http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843377 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843377 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 17:55:55 -0800 Comment by Cale you think bruce harrell will win just because of the drunk driving incident?

and prop 1 will pass. among likely voters prop 1 did quite well in the polls and i hear there is a low voter turnout this year. so those who went are probably... the likely voters!

and when we are talking about final alignments for light rail this time next year instead of how to get it back on the ballot, you won't regret voting yes.

]]> Cale http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843383 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843383 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 18:05:49 -0800 Comment by Meinert Party will definitely be after 9pm at the Spitfire. Whatever your position on all this shit, and I do mean shit, except for Sherman, you should come down and have a drink and we can watch the results. Should be fun. Like Sam Sheepdog and Ralph Wolf after work. We might even get to turn Feit into a Pinata

]]> Meinert http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843384 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843384 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 18:06:22 -0800 Comment by MUST STAY SECRET so where will Burgess be as he cries in his beer

is he really CIA?

]]> MUST STAY SECRET http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843392 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843392 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 18:12:40 -0800 Comment by Gomez Based on my admittedly limited POV over everyone I've seen discuss the matter all over, I've noticed a sharply divided 50/50 split among Seattlites on Prop 1 for reasons readers here are aware of... and a massive groundswell against it in the suburbs and exurbs because of the fucking MVET fees and the distaste for decades of construction slowdowns. I'm thinking it'll fall by a 2:1 margin. :( I'd like to be wrong but I can't deny my extended observations.

]]> Gomez http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843397 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843397 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 18:20:06 -0800 Comment by zzyzx The snarkiness here inspired me to actually go out and vote for Prop 1. Thanks :)

]]> zzyzx http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843409 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843409 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 19:18:45 -0800 Comment by Big Sven Gomez- I don't understand. Will says that if this fails there will be a transit bill in Feb '08. But if you're right, and suburbanites defeat a bill that's $10b for urban transit and $7b for suburban roads, how will the suburban voters pass a bill that's *all* urban transit?

Oh that's right, the 400,000 Seattle voters will come out in such strong numbers that they will swamp the 2,600,000 suburban skeptics. Never mind.

]]> Big Sven http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843426 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843426 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 20:15:52 -0800 Comment by COMTE Well, as of 8:18 p.m. Prop 1 is indeed tanking, 47.67% to 55.33% with 124368 absentee ballots tabulated.

I-960 looks to be DOA as well, with 45.52% to 54.48% and 144,622 ballots counted.

R-67 on the other hand looks like a shoo-in; 62.6% to 37.4%, while HJR 4204 may still be too close to call with 52.53% yea & 47.47 nays.

Funny, the KC Metro Elections Results page is showing party affiliations for a supposedly "non-partisan" County Prosecutor's race, but in any case it looks like it's going to be Satterberg over Sherman, 54.24% to 45.59%.

Godden is kicking Swaja's ass, no surprise there, but wow, look at the Velasquez, Harrell race: with a little over 13% counted, Harrell has a very strong 61.22% lead over the incumbent's 38.43%. And Burgess is stomping on Della, 61.01% to 38.6%, while Clark is making quick work of Fenton 74% to 25%.

]]> COMTE http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843428 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843428 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 20:33:06 -0800 Comment by Brian in Seattle I posted this in the P-I's early results forum and I'm just going to repost it here about Prop 1.

"Congratulations to the 2 extremes on both sides! Now you can go back to fighting amongst yourselves like the little children that you are..

1 side only wants new roads and no transit, the other side just wants new transit and no new roads. The pragmatic middle ground who realizes we need new infrastructure of all types got voted down again. Its very depressing.
Have fun being stuck in traffic and paying 4.00-4.50 a gallon gasoline next May with no alternative in the works. All of you have brought it upon yourselves."

]]> Brian in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843436 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843436 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 21:02:43 -0800 Comment by Mosquito Fleeter Not to gloat or anything Brian, but while everyone else is stuck in traffic, I'll be scooting to work in 15 minutes. And even at $4.50 a gallon, I'll still be spending less than $7.00 a week on gas.

]]> Mosquito Fleeter http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843442 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843442 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 21:08:35 -0800 Comment by SeMe like i said at 5 the exit polls had it tanking. never let it be said that SeMe did not tell yall so.

]]> SeMe http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843446 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843446 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 21:15:59 -0800 Comment by Brian in Seattle Well, I take the bus myself so I don't really spend that much on gas myself. But the truth is the extremes on both side killed this proposition. Its depressing. I found it to be well balanced because we really do need more of EVERYTHING. Not just one or the other as much as the two extremes would like us to believe.

]]> Brian in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843453 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843453 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 21:25:04 -0800 Comment by Gomez 13. Will doesn't know what he's talking about. Someone in the county hinted at the possibility of a revote without any real substantial details, and the eternally hopeful urbanists jumped on it and took it as fact. It's hot air.

]]> Gomez http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843483 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843483 News Tue, 06 Nov 2007 22:35:57 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle Hmmm. I only lost two of my predictions.

Not bad.

Too bad Gomez has no frickin clue how politics works. I've been negotiating the terms of the revotes for a while now, and I know there are meetings next week the Stranger isn't supposed to know about.

See you at Jeannie's wrapup if you have the stones to admit it.

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843783 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843783 News Wed, 07 Nov 2007 10:19:29 -0800 Comment by Will in Seattle oh, sorry, forgot the David Della prediction. bygones, that means three wrong. not bad.

]]> Will in Seattle http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843786 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/11/election_prediction#c843786 News Wed, 07 Nov 2007 10:20:18 -0800