Slog News & Arts

Line Out

Music & Nightlife

« Conservative Hacks Unhappy Wit... | In Other Elections »

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Election Prediction

posted by on November 6 at 17:07 PM

We’re going to get a count tonight—at about 8:15—from King County Elections of about 100,000 absentee ballots. They also project that when all is said and done, about 72 percent of the total vote, which they guesstimate at 467,570, will come in absentees. (That’s about 338,000).

They’re also going to report on the poll count at around 10:30. The poll vote is supposed to be about 28 percent of the total vote.

So my sense is the 8:15 drop won’t tell us a lot unless the margins are more than three points (and so says an election wonk friend of mine).

Another election wonk friend of mine called me earlier today and asked for my predictions.

Here they are:

Prop 1 (roads and transit) loses.
Measure 67 (insurance reform) wins.
4204 (simple majority for school levies) wins.
8206 (rainy day fund) wins.

Dan Satterberg over Bill Sherman for King County Prosecutor.

And in the City Council races:

Jean Godden
Bruce Harrell
David Della

For Port:
Bob Edwards
Alec Fisken

School Board:
Peter Maier
Sherry Carr
Steve Sundquist

We’ll be Slogging tonight. I hope I’m wrong about most of these. Or at least about Sherman and Flynn losing.

Tune in to Slog at around 8pm when we begin our ubercoverage.

RSS icon Comments


Spitfire will have the results on 21 tvs and free wifi. Come join us

Posted by Spitfire | November 6, 2007 5:11 PM

OK, Josh, I'll leak my predictions on those measures:

Prop 1 (roads and transit) loses
Measure 67 (insurance reform) wins
4204 (simple majority for school levies) wins
Bill Sherman for KC Prosecutor. (DISAGREE - hope I'm right)

And in the City Council races:

Jean Godden
Bruce Harrell (HOPE VENUS WINS, but ...)
David Della

For Port:
Gael Tarleton (hope I'm right)
Alec Fisken

Only two where I disagree with you. Not bad!

Posted by Will in Seattle | November 6, 2007 5:19 PM

"Prop 1 (roads and transit) loses."

Wishful thinking, Josh.

Posted by tsm | November 6, 2007 5:32 PM

Prop 1 will lose tsm, and you know it.

Posted by Mr. Poe | November 6, 2007 5:38 PM

exit polls have prop 1 tanking.

Posted by SeMe | November 6, 2007 5:46 PM

exit polls have prop 1 tanking

link please? otherwise, nice job talking out your ass.

Posted by grznt | November 6, 2007 5:51 PM

*grabs popcorn*

Posted by kid icarus | November 6, 2007 5:55 PM

you think bruce harrell will win just because of the drunk driving incident?

and prop 1 will pass. among likely voters prop 1 did quite well in the polls and i hear there is a low voter turnout this year. so those who went are probably... the likely voters!

and when we are talking about final alignments for light rail this time next year instead of how to get it back on the ballot, you won't regret voting yes.

Posted by Cale | November 6, 2007 6:05 PM

Party will definitely be after 9pm at the Spitfire. Whatever your position on all this shit, and I do mean shit, except for Sherman, you should come down and have a drink and we can watch the results. Should be fun. Like Sam Sheepdog and Ralph Wolf after work. We might even get to turn Feit into a Pinata

Posted by Meinert | November 6, 2007 6:06 PM

so where will Burgess be as he cries in his beer

is he really CIA?

Posted by MUST STAY SECRET | November 6, 2007 6:12 PM

Based on my admittedly limited POV over everyone I've seen discuss the matter all over, I've noticed a sharply divided 50/50 split among Seattlites on Prop 1 for reasons readers here are aware of... and a massive groundswell against it in the suburbs and exurbs because of the fucking MVET fees and the distaste for decades of construction slowdowns. I'm thinking it'll fall by a 2:1 margin. :( I'd like to be wrong but I can't deny my extended observations.

Posted by Gomez | November 6, 2007 6:20 PM

The snarkiness here inspired me to actually go out and vote for Prop 1. Thanks :)

Posted by zzyzx | November 6, 2007 7:18 PM

Gomez- I don't understand. Will says that if this fails there will be a transit bill in Feb '08. But if you're right, and suburbanites defeat a bill that's $10b for urban transit and $7b for suburban roads, how will the suburban voters pass a bill that's *all* urban transit?

Oh that's right, the 400,000 Seattle voters will come out in such strong numbers that they will swamp the 2,600,000 suburban skeptics. Never mind.

Posted by Big Sven | November 6, 2007 8:15 PM

Well, as of 8:18 p.m. Prop 1 is indeed tanking, 47.67% to 55.33% with 124368 absentee ballots tabulated.

I-960 looks to be DOA as well, with 45.52% to 54.48% and 144,622 ballots counted.

R-67 on the other hand looks like a shoo-in; 62.6% to 37.4%, while HJR 4204 may still be too close to call with 52.53% yea & 47.47 nays.

Funny, the KC Metro Elections Results page is showing party affiliations for a supposedly "non-partisan" County Prosecutor's race, but in any case it looks like it's going to be Satterberg over Sherman, 54.24% to 45.59%.

Godden is kicking Swaja's ass, no surprise there, but wow, look at the Velasquez, Harrell race: with a little over 13% counted, Harrell has a very strong 61.22% lead over the incumbent's 38.43%. And Burgess is stomping on Della, 61.01% to 38.6%, while Clark is making quick work of Fenton 74% to 25%.

Posted by COMTE | November 6, 2007 8:33 PM

I posted this in the P-I's early results forum and I'm just going to repost it here about Prop 1.

"Congratulations to the 2 extremes on both sides! Now you can go back to fighting amongst yourselves like the little children that you are..

1 side only wants new roads and no transit, the other side just wants new transit and no new roads. The pragmatic middle ground who realizes we need new infrastructure of all types got voted down again. Its very depressing.
Have fun being stuck in traffic and paying 4.00-4.50 a gallon gasoline next May with no alternative in the works. All of you have brought it upon yourselves."

Posted by Brian in Seattle | November 6, 2007 9:02 PM

Not to gloat or anything Brian, but while everyone else is stuck in traffic, I'll be scooting to work in 15 minutes. And even at $4.50 a gallon, I'll still be spending less than $7.00 a week on gas.

Posted by Mosquito Fleeter | November 6, 2007 9:08 PM

like i said at 5 the exit polls had it tanking. never let it be said that SeMe did not tell yall so.

Posted by SeMe | November 6, 2007 9:15 PM

Well, I take the bus myself so I don't really spend that much on gas myself. But the truth is the extremes on both side killed this proposition. Its depressing. I found it to be well balanced because we really do need more of EVERYTHING. Not just one or the other as much as the two extremes would like us to believe.

Posted by Brian in Seattle | November 6, 2007 9:25 PM

13. Will doesn't know what he's talking about. Someone in the county hinted at the possibility of a revote without any real substantial details, and the eternally hopeful urbanists jumped on it and took it as fact. It's hot air.

Posted by Gomez | November 6, 2007 10:35 PM

Hmmm. I only lost two of my predictions.

Not bad.

Too bad Gomez has no frickin clue how politics works. I've been negotiating the terms of the revotes for a while now, and I know there are meetings next week the Stranger isn't supposed to know about.

See you at Jeannie's wrapup if you have the stones to admit it.

Posted by Will in Seattle | November 7, 2007 10:19 AM

oh, sorry, forgot the David Della prediction. bygones, that means three wrong. not bad.

Posted by Will in Seattle | November 7, 2007 10:20 AM

Comments Closed

In order to combat spam, we are no longer accepting comments on this post (or any post more than 14 days old).