News Election Prediction
posted by November 6 at 17:07 PMon
We’re going to get a count tonight—at about 8:15—from King County Elections of about 100,000 absentee ballots. They also project that when all is said and done, about 72 percent of the total vote, which they guesstimate at 467,570, will come in absentees. (That’s about 338,000).
They’re also going to report on the poll count at around 10:30. The poll vote is supposed to be about 28 percent of the total vote.
So my sense is the 8:15 drop won’t tell us a lot unless the margins are more than three points (and so says an election wonk friend of mine).
Another election wonk friend of mine called me earlier today and asked for my predictions.
Here they are:
Prop 1 (roads and transit) loses.
Measure 67 (insurance reform) wins.
4204 (simple majority for school levies) wins.
8206 (rainy day fund) wins.
Dan Satterberg over Bill Sherman for King County Prosecutor.
And in the City Council races:
We’ll be Slogging tonight. I hope I’m wrong about most of these. Or at least about Sherman and Flynn losing.
Tune in to Slog at around 8pm when we begin our ubercoverage.