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Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Mark Penn’s Perspective

posted by on October 10 at 10:50 AM

Like I wrote earlier, top Clinton strategist Mark Penn is in Seattle today to brief reporters and supporters on the Clinton campaign, and to promote his new book.

I just got off a conference call with Penn, who had some interesting things to say about the Clinton campaign here in Washington and around the country.

One thing that leaped out at me: Penn prefaced his discussion of Clinton and Washington State by saying, “There isn’t very much current polling in Washington State.” Then he pointed to the same 5-month-old poll that Ron Sims pointed to in September when he tried to tell me that Clinton was in the lead here. But there is, in fact, more current polling. It’s not perfect, but it’s here, and it shows Obama doing better in Washington than Clinton or John Edwards in head-to-head matches with the top Republican contenders.

Penn told us: “This is shaping up as a very good state for her. Support here continues to grow and strengthen.”

Maybe. But in addition to the recent poll, there’s also the matter of Obama having out-fundraised Clinton in Washington State in the first two quarters of this year (we’ll find out soon whether that trend continues in the third quarter).

I mentioned the more recent poll and the fundraising figures to Penn and told him it’s actually Obama who seems to have more momentum in Washington than Clinton. I asked him why that would be, especially when in national polls and in many other states it’s Clinton who is emerging as the clear front-runner.

“I think Obama had a lot of momentum, but I think that momentum is shifting,” Penn responded. He said over the summer there was a burst in enthusiasm for Obama all around the country, and that this had registered in donations to Obama and strong poll showings for the Illinois Senator, but that now this enthusiasm is abating.

“That pattern has now reversed itself,” Penn told me. “So that she’s doing better than Obama, because the more people have learned about Obama, particularly over the summer period, the more they have felt that she’s the one really ready to be president… Our sense is that we’re seeing some of the same trends here in Washington.”

More in the jump…

Backing up to the bigger election picture, Penn said that he's seeing "a tremendous consolidation of the numbers around Clinton." That is, she's doing better than her opponents in most national polls and in many state polls—except in Iowa, which, Penn conceded, is still "extremely competitive." He called Clinton's momentum this early on "the surprise of this campaign."

And, he added: "What we've seen is as the Senator has strengthened in the primary she has strengthened in the general election." He cited recent polls showing Clinton now 7 to 9 points ahead of Giuliani.

Penn sees two groups that were key in the last election—Hispanics and women—as being key again this cycle, and he said Clinton is increasingly seen as favorable by both groups. "We continue to believe one of the major factors will be an outpouring of first-time women voters eager to elect a woman as president," he told us.

What's making people gravitate toward Clinton? Penn dropped all the usual Clinton campaign buzz-words (strength, experience, confidence, competence, proven track-record) but added: "It really turned out she was more famous than known, and she consistently shattered the previous conceptions about her... I really think our biggest strategy in the campaign has been in some sense no strategy at all. People had a very outdated image of the Senator in places outside of New York… What we tried to do was just give her the kind of exposure that would let people see for themselves how ready she is."

Another reporter on the conference asked about what Adam Nagourney of The New York Times recently called the perils of playing front-runner.

Penn's reply:

"I said in that article that she's been running a strong primary campaign that has had the almost secondary benefit of being seen nationally, and we've seen her national numbers go up as well. But it was and is a primary campaign that she's been running... We're taking absolutely nothing for granted.

"People always say, 'Is she electable?' What I do is point out that not only is she electable, but she's ahead. But I don’t want that to be misinterpreted in any way as being complacent... Rather than sitting on anything, we've been continually working and advancing, rolling out policy proposals, campaigning even harder."

RSS icon Comments

1

oh please! the slog poll may be fun and all, but it is no means representive of washington, and it sure as hell isn't scientific. that's like going onto the AFA's website and seeing that the majority of it's readers are against marriage rights.

Posted by konstantConsumer | October 10, 2007 10:59 AM
2

Of course, if you give us a choice, we'd all rather re-elect President Gore.

Posted by Will in Seattle | October 10, 2007 11:00 AM
3

My enthusiasm for Obama changed drastically right around the time of the YouTube debate.

I'm going to vote democrat either way, but I would prefer voting for Edwards or Richardson rather than Hillary or Obama. Unfortunately, that makes me sexist and racist for some reason.

Posted by Mr. Poe | October 10, 2007 11:02 AM
4

@2

Speak for yourself, please.

P.S.
That's a pretty good way to keep the Reps in office.

Posted by Mr. Poe | October 10, 2007 11:04 AM
5

@1 - he wasn't talking about the slog poll: http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/10/polling_washington

Posted by Levislade | October 10, 2007 11:13 AM
6

Dammit, Eli. Is there some requirement that to get a press badge to cover a presidential election you have to check your common sense at the door? Why the hell are you seriously reporting what someone from the Clinton campaign has to say about the momentum of Clinton's opponent?

This is a bit like asking someone from the National Association of Realtors how home values are doing these days. Or asking Merrill Lynch about a public company whose IPO they're underwriting.

Posted by cressona | October 10, 2007 11:13 AM
7

Here's another highly anecdotal unscientific poll: not a single person I've talked to about this in bars over the summer has brought up Gore. Also, I hear a lot of support for Clinton, probably mostly from women.

I didn't vote in the last two slog polls, and in the first one I voted twice (home and work).

Is there a way to tell how many people read slog, other than guessing from the number of comments?

Posted by Tizzle | October 10, 2007 11:14 AM
8

Eli, You sloged last week about the fact that if Clinton were to get the Dems nod and win the election this would place the country in the control of the same two familes for 24 years.

I smell a feature.

Posted by Brandon Dismuke | October 10, 2007 11:17 AM
9

This is all horserace. Where's the beef?

Posted by Greg | October 10, 2007 11:53 AM
10

Graffiti seen today scrawled on the side of an elevator: "life's a bitch, so don't vote for one". Sadly, this is just the beginning of what we're going to see if Clinton gets the nomination. If we thought that the crap we saw with Kerry was bad (character assasination, swiftboating, etc.) we need to realize that with Clinton it's going to be 5x as bad.

Posted by scharrera | October 10, 2007 12:55 PM
11

@2 - I thought Richardson was hispanic, so that would only make you racist toward black people.

Posted by Hernandez | October 10, 2007 2:14 PM
12

@10 - No matter who the nominee is, there will be crap flung. In Hillary Clinton's case, a lot of it will be sexist crap. The sign of a winner isn't how much crap is flung their way but how they deal with it. Hillary has been attacked for fifteen years now, and she's both willing and capable (and has a strong record) of responding effectively.

The problem with Kerry, and Gore before him, and Dukakis and Mondale before them, were that they didn't fight back effectively. The Clintons have many negative traits, but one thing you can count on them to do is counter the crap and come out smelling better than their political enemies. It's a trait that is sorely lacking in many of her rivals (Obama most of all), and the best reason to support her candidacy.

Posted by Cascadian | October 10, 2007 3:34 PM
13

I agree with cressona and cascadian completely.

(1) Penn wouldn't say his candidate doesn't have momentum in WA. Shocking!

(2) Yes some people hate Hills (though it's down to 40% nationally) but the vast majority of those will pour bile on any Dem- they hated the milqueoast Kerry, for god's sake. The point is that she punch as hard as she is punched, and won't that be a breath of fresh air?

Posted by Big Sven | October 10, 2007 3:51 PM
14

@11 - um, how so?

Posted by Will in Seattle | October 10, 2007 3:52 PM
15

Hmmm, I suppose I will vote for Hillary and at this point I tend to agree it is going to be her on the ticket. (The comparisons to Dean are VERY weak to say the least)

I just will not put up a lawn sign, no stickers and not talk about it. Hillary is the lesser of all the evils at this point and that, sad as it is, is what we are back to: the lesser of two evils.

I now HATE Al Gore. HATE HATE HATE Al Gore.... May he ROT IN HELL for NOT running this time.

Posted by Just Me | October 10, 2007 3:56 PM
16

Yeah I don't quite understand #11, either. I think he was directing it at me? And if so, it still doesn't make any sense.

Posted by Mr. Poe | October 10, 2007 5:49 PM
17

I agree with cressona and cascadian completely.

(1) Penn wouldn't say his candidate doesn't have momentum in WA. Shocking!

(2) Yes some people hate Hills (though it's down to 40% nationally) but the vast majority of those will pour bile on any Dem- they hated the milqueoast Kerry, for god's sake. The point is that she punch as hard as she is punched, and won't that be a breath of fresh air?

Posted by Big Sven | October 10, 2007 9:12 PM
18

I agree with cressona and cascadian completely.

(1) Penn wouldn't say his candidate doesn't have momentum in WA. Shocking!

(2) Yes some people hate Hills (though it's down to 40% nationally) but the vast majority of those will pour bile on any Dem- they hated the milqueoast Kerry, for god's sake. The point is that she punch as hard as she is punched, and won't that be a breath of fresh air?

Posted by Big Sven | October 11, 2007 1:15 AM

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