Slog - Comments on Who Will Win Iowa? http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa On the Republican side, a Mitt Romney win in the hugely important Iowa caucuses is starting to seem inevitable.... Copyright 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 09:47:16 -0800 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 19:13:42 -0800 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.34 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Comment by elswinger I don't get why Iowa and New Hampshire are so damned important. So what if they vote first.

]]> elswinger http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760139 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760139 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 09:55:47 -0800 Comment by andy niable it's an indication of the shallowness of the American political "winner take all" system. At least this time Iowa and New Hampshire's exclusivity has been blunted by many other states' moving up their own primaries.

Romney would make a great GOP candidate... to lose against a Democrat. Go Romney!

]]> andy niable http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760144 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760144 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 10:00:13 -0800 Comment by elswinger Just an FYI from the Wiki. Iowa and New Hampshire are not foolproof indicators of who the nominee will be:

Iowa Caucuses

Democrats

1976 - "Uncommitted" (37%) defeated Jimmy Carter* (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)

1992 - Tom Harkin (76%) defeated Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton* (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)

Republicans

1980- George H. W. Bush (32%) defeated Ronald Reagan* (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)


New Hampshire Primary

Democrats

1952: Senator C. Estes Kefauver defeated President Harry S. Truman

1972: Senator Edmund S. Muskie defeated Senator George S. McGovern and Mayor Samuel William "Sam" Yorty

1992: Senator Paul E. Tsongas defeated Governor William J. "Bill" Clinton, Senator J. Robert "Bob" Kerrey, Senator Thomas R. "Tom" Harkin, and Governor Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown, Jr.

Republicans

1948: Governor Harold E. Stassen defeated Governor Thomas E. Dewey

1964: Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. defeated Senator Barry M. Goldwater, Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller, and Vice President Richard M. Nixon

1996: Patrick J. "Pat" Buchanan defeated Senator Robert J. "Bob" Dole, Governor A. Lamar Alexander, Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes, Jr., Senator Richard G. "Dick" Lugar, and Ambassador Alan Keyes

2000: Senator John S. McCain defeated Governor George W. Bush, Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes, Jr., Ambassador Alan Keyes, and Gary L. Bauer

]]> elswinger http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760172 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760172 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 10:49:52 -0800 Comment by Gitai @3 Both Iowa and New Hampshire are much less accurate for the GOP than the Dems. For them, it's all about South Carolina.

New Hampshire is a pretty good indicator for the Dems though. You listed three of thirteen primaries since 1952 where the nominee was not the winner in New Hampshire.

Either way, I've got high hopes that Richardson will come in higher than fourth place.

]]> Gitai http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760182 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760182 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 11:16:34 -0800 Comment by Levislade Yeah, I like Richardson, even more so after his showing in the MoveOn enviro town hall thingy.

]]> Levislade http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760210 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760210 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 11:53:39 -0800 Comment by matthew fisher wilder At this point, I'm rooting for Romney as the winner of the GOP nom, for reasons stated above. He'd lose to ANY democrat. He can't shake off being Mormon -- which is a big taboo among 90% amerikuns (or more.)

]]> matthew fisher wilder http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760253 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760253 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 12:51:22 -0800 Comment by Aexia In 1992, Tom Harkin won because he's the Senator for Iowa and everyone else skipped the state. So that's not really a good year to talk about Iowa's predictive value.

]]> Aexia http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760278 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760278 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 13:13:52 -0800 Comment by Gitai @6 Agreed. Americans can't deal with the different very well, and Mormons are very, very different. I knew that Lieberman was toast from the moment Gore chose him, because someone would get a picture of him wearing tefillin, and the strangeness of it to goyim would make him too alien in their eyes, and quite frankly, tefillin are pretty tame compared to Mormon theology.

]]> Gitai http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760279 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760279 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 13:15:32 -0800 Comment by elswinger Mormon's are as bat shit crazy as Scientologists. But it's moot because I'll never vote a Republican unless Lincoln rises from the grave to finish his term.

]]> elswinger http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760318 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760318 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 14:01:04 -0800 Comment by AlanEfflux Help Me I live in Iowa. If my fellow citizens vote Mit, I'm moving. (ok I'm moving anyway, but that will just be added to the reasons why) Just wanted you all to know we are not all crazy here. Some of us, myself included, actually do know whats going on. We are just out numbered by all the rual people with little world view/ education.

]]> AlanEfflux http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760534 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760534 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 19:07:40 -0800 Comment by AlanEfflux Help Me I live in Iowa. If my fellow citizens vote Mit, I'm moving. (ok I'm moving anyway, but that will just be added to the reasons why) Just wanted you all to know we are not all "bat shit" crazy here. Some of us, myself included, actually do know whats going on. We are just out numbered by all the rual people with little world view/ education.

]]> AlanEfflux http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760536 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760536 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 19:08:23 -0800 Comment by AlanEfflux or maybe I dont know whats going on since I posted that twice. I hit cancel, not sure wtf is up with that. I added "bat shit" to crazy!

]]> AlanEfflux http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760540 http://slog.thestranger.com/2007/07/who_will_win_iowa#c760540 2008 Mon, 09 Jul 2007 19:13:42 -0800