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Friday, July 27, 2007

The Greater Seattle Commute Experiment

posted by on July 27 at 13:06 PM

I-5%20from%20Lakeview.jpg

If you’ve ever wondered what the Seattle metro area would be like if drivers were less coddled, I present to you the I-5 Spokane Street to I-90 Bridge Repair.

The work on northbound I-5 will require some of the most extensive lane and ramp closures Seattle drivers have ever seen. I-5 will be reduced to two or three lanes during the daytime, and sometimes just one lane overnight, during the intensive 19-day period, Aug. 10 through 29…

Drivers will likely face lengthy backups and significant delays on freeways and city streets from 4 a.m. to midnight. Traffic will be the worst during the morning rush hours. The August construction lane closures will create long backups on northbound I-5 and will push traffic onto other routes, including city streets in Georgetown, SODO, Rainier Valley and Beacon Hill. WSDOT anticipates I-405 and State Route 99 will be popular freeway alternatives. Trucks will be encouraged to use I-405, East Marginal Way South and Airport Way South.

Backups and delays will not be limited to the Seattle area and south end; they will spread to the Eastside. We expect the typical morning congestion on I-405 to extend throughout the day. Many more trucks will be using I-405 during this construction. Other drivers will also choose I-405 as an alternate route.

Will the city continue to exist when thousands of solo-drivers are faced with getting on a bus, taking a train, using a water ferry, walking, or cycling to work? How will people adapt? Just how unsustainable is ‘driving until you qualify’ for a suburban McMansion? Does car capacity matter—or is it more commuter capacity? What is the local climate impact of all the cars?

This is basically a wonderful prospective study of these questions—provided the data is collected. It’s even more informative because only one direction of I-5 will be closed. Much like when the Viaduct closed after the earthquake, we can get a peek into what a very different Seattle would be like. I’m so excited!

In fact, this reminds me of one of my all-time favorite climate change papers, taking advantage of the mandatory grounding of all commercial aircraft from September 11th to 14th in 2001:

Some researchers have speculated that persisting contrails exacerbate “global warming” in areas where they most frequently occur…Previous attempts to identify a contrail effect in the climate record have been based mostly on circumstantial evidence…
These results support the hypothesis that the grounding of all commercial aircraft in U.S. airspace, and the consequent elimination of substantial jet contrail coverage during the 11–14 September 2001 grounding period, helped produce an enhanced surface DTR in those areas that typically experience the greatest numbers of jet contrails during the fall season (e.g. the Midwest).

What questions do you want answered from the great I-5 shutdown of 2007?

RSS icon Comments

1

Will you sign my TB quarantine order?

Posted by Lloyd Clydesdale | July 27, 2007 1:48 PM
2

Why do ST and Metro have no plan to add busses?
Why is there no satellite parking (say at Southcenter or Boeing) with special busses running downtown?
Why do all the agencies fail to coordinate -- is WashDOT trying to create congestion to prove we need highways?

Posted by unPC | July 27, 2007 1:51 PM
3

Can we tear down the viaduct now?

plz?

This looks SO awesome-

http://www.seattle.gov/DPD/Planning/Central_Waterfront/Overview/

Posted by Cale | July 27, 2007 2:04 PM
4

Light rail construction is well under way. The projects are coming in on time and under budget. Soon, there will be frequent and convenient service from SeaTac Airport to Downtown. Catch the Wave!

Posted by we_need_real_transit | July 27, 2007 2:09 PM
5

you won't get any of your asshole questions resolved. there aren't any extra buses to use and light rail is MIA. And seattle's surface streets are going to be clogged as well. Yes it will be really funny when back ups extend to tacoma and babies are born on I-5 and people can't get to work to support their families. HIlarious.

Posted by aarons | July 27, 2007 2:30 PM
6

Yeah, just how insensitive to the plight of tens of thousands of ordinary people can the out-of-touch elitists who write for the Stranger be?

Posted by Mr. X | July 27, 2007 2:30 PM
7

When that shut down happens would be perfect time for a little quake to hit. JUST enough to take the viaduct down with out any injuries naturally. Let's say a 2 am quake.

But seriously, we all know despite all the warnings no one will really "get" the fact it is shut down until three days into the shut down and then they will start to take the bus. And that means.... DELAYS IN THE BUS ROUTES!!!

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger | July 27, 2007 2:30 PM
8

@5

And lots of people choose to take vacations and work from home, even if that isn't sustainable for them in the long run.

Posted by MHD | July 27, 2007 2:39 PM
9

@5

And lots of people choose to take vacations and work from home, even if that isn't sustainable for them in the long run.

Posted by MHD | July 27, 2007 2:44 PM
10

unPC @2

Uh, ST is planning to add buses. I don't why you'd want to take one, though; the buses will be just as screwed as the cars, and Sounder is a much better option.

Posted by MHD | July 27, 2007 2:46 PM
11

We're going to learn a lot during this closure about exactly how prepared this city is to handle closing a major highway.

Posted by Gomez | July 27, 2007 2:55 PM
12

@10 "Underused buses might offer a smoother commute -- if there are any around at rush hour; Metro Transit officials said it won't be able to add any buses." http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/transportation/324467_freeway20.html?source=mypi

@11- things will be fucked up. many people stuck in traffic. alternate routes clogged. just call me nostradamus.

Posted by aarons | July 27, 2007 3:05 PM
13

@5, 6 You seem to be under the impression that increased capacity leads to shorter commute times, when in fact, the exact opposite is true. See, people are actually kind of smart. They don't see a headline that says half of I-5 will be shut down for nearly three weeks and go, "Hmmm...I will continue in the exact same routine and deal with massive amounts of congestion." They figure out ways to deal with it. Praise God above, I don't commute. Sadly, I do drive for business. A lot. However, being aware of this closure, I'm going to use alternate routes, just like I had to earlier this month to avoid the clusterfuck that Denny became. Frankly, I'm just going to do my best to avoid any meeting that would normally obligate me to take this route. It's probably not worth the hassle.

Now multiply my thinking times thousands of people. I'm not saying there won't be congestion. There will be. I'm just saying that people aren't the helpless victims you make them out to be.

Posted by Gitai | July 27, 2007 3:09 PM
14

@13- I'm well versed in new urbanism. but capacity will be 40% of what it normally is. So 99 and 405 and surface streets will be clogged with the other 60%. yes people will drive less and carpool and crowd onto buses. It still though will cause a lot of headaches. Traffic back ups presently at rush hour are probably worse than you realize and they will only be much worse.

Posted by aarons | July 27, 2007 3:22 PM
15

For East-West travel, I predict that's where the highest increase in beatings will occur over this span.

Wagers, anyone?

Posted by Lloyd Clydesdale | July 27, 2007 3:39 PM
16

Who uses I-5?

Not people in Seattle - we mostly use other methods.

It's the SUBURBANITES who will suffer most.

GOOD!

Posted by Will in Seattle | July 27, 2007 4:08 PM
17

Gitai-

On what New Urbanist fantasy planet does reducing capacity reduce congestion and reduce travel times?

You can talk about induced demand with regard to increasing capacity (though I think that is somewhat overrated as a talking point - I-90 is a lot faster now than it was before it was expanded, even with the new users), but there is NO evidence that I'm aware of that the converse (or inverse) is true.

Tell you what, let's look at what a clusterfuck downtown streets (and the dreaded AWV!) become when I-5 experiences these lane closures and then you can try making this ridiculous assertion again.

Lots of people won't be able to stop trying to get through Downtown Seattle during this construction period, and those of you that have the luxury of avoiding this route and/or its alternatives ought to be a little more sensitive to the REAL WORLD hardship this will be for thousands and thousands of folks.

Posted by Mr. X | July 27, 2007 4:13 PM
18

#5: Where are you getting this idea that light rail is MIA? Because to be frank, it sounds like you're pulling that claim out of your ass.

Posted by Jay | July 27, 2007 4:15 PM
19

@12 - ST and Metro are different agencies. ST is running more busses, Metro isn't. Get it?

Posted by Wendy | July 27, 2007 4:28 PM
20

Oh, and light rail is 10 years late and 1/3 less than was originally promised. I wouldn't call it MIA in regard to this particular post, but it's completely irrelevent, as it won't open until 2009 at the earliest.

Posted by Mr. X | July 27, 2007 4:30 PM
21

@17 How about Downtown Seattle? With 3rd Ave closed to all but buses during rush hour, people are moving through Downtown faster than ever.

If we added congestion pricing, it would be even better.

Posted by Gitai | July 27, 2007 4:32 PM
22

Um, not on 1st, 2nd, 4th, or 5th Avenues they aren't.

Posted by Mr. X | July 27, 2007 5:08 PM
23

I purposely decided to take vacation during one week of the work and at my office we cancelled all meetings during that time that required people to travel that corridor (which is all trips basically)

Obviously it is easy to change behavior and accomadate this closure in the short term by encouraging people to take an august 'break'.

Posted by Transit Fan | July 27, 2007 5:40 PM
24

@18- genius they are MIA in august of 2007 when they will be needed.

Posted by aarons | July 27, 2007 6:22 PM
25

Mr. X -- Nice to see ya.

Posted by Lloyd Clydesdale | July 27, 2007 7:56 PM
26

Link light rail has been running since June of 2006 from Sea-Tac to the University District. As has been said many times Sound Transit is on schedule and under budget. Mr X stop lying. Nowhere on ST's site will you see anything that says different.

Posted by Goebbels for Transit | July 27, 2007 10:22 PM
27

The impact of a two-week, special-purpose change will not be representative. Higher pain threshold when commuters only have to make do for 2 weeks. Also, employers will provide more leeway for changes that would not be permanently practical.

Net result, the real risk is trying to infer permanent behavior change.

Posted by Troy | July 29, 2007 7:04 AM
28

i heard that the manager of the ballard branch wamu wouldn't be showing up and the branch would be closed during this time. is that legal?

Posted by chris | July 29, 2007 12:02 PM
29

You funny, Joe G. (certainly moreso than your namesake!). Sadly, except for your first sentence (you know - the one about a functioning system!), that' s just about literally the typical ST apologist's response.

Thanks for the shout out Lloyd, this echo chamber can seem kinda lonely sometimes!

Posted by Mr. X | July 29, 2007 3:57 PM
30

They just need some branding. If they call it the "I-5 Surface Solution" everyone in Seattle will embrace it.

Posted by Orv | July 30, 2007 10:07 AM
31

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32

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