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Wednesday, February 21, 2007

The Long Goodbye

posted by on February 21 at 11:49 AM

From the P.I.:

Stopping far short of saying he wanted out, Ichiro said the idea of becoming a free agent after his contract expires this year is at least worth considering. His agent said the Mariners’ ability to win this season will figure prominently into Ichiro’s decision.

Translation: Goodbye, Ichiro. Catch him while you can, because in 2008 he’ll no doubt be in pinstripes.

RSS icon Comments

1

If Ichiro goes, look for Nintendo to sell the team, probably to some city other than Seattle.

Posted by elswinger | February 21, 2007 11:58 AM
2

I love Ichiro enough to let him go. He deserves better than what we've been able to give him.

Posted by John | February 21, 2007 11:59 AM
3

Blame Bill "I threw a major league ball club down the shitter just when they were starting to look decent" Bavasi.

Posted by Hernandez | February 21, 2007 12:03 PM
4

If Ichiro goes, what reason will be left to go to a Mariner's game? This team is so absolutely gutted of talent.

It's like the early 90's all over again: a bunch of average players, a couple solid ones, and a superstar. You don't go to see the Mariners win, or even be competitive. You go to see the team superstar make a great play. Ichiro has replaced Ken Griffey Jr., but it's the pretty much the same deal.

So if Ichiro leaves, what's left? Richie Sexson?! Willie fucking Bloomquist? Sure, Yuniesky Betancourt is an impressive fielder, and maybe he'll turn out to be one of the greats of the game - someday. But Ichiro is one of the absolute top players in baseball right now. The Mariners don't have anything else close to that kind of talent. If he goes, it's going to be painful to watch baseball in Seattle.

Posted by Lark Hawk | February 21, 2007 12:04 PM
5

I'd trade Ichiro and Betancourt for A-Rod, Pavano and cash. The Yankees can get rid of two of their headaches and the Mariners can get some power and pitching.

Posted by DOUG. | February 21, 2007 12:13 PM
6

beantown baby!!

and sexson is a joke.

Posted by mike | February 21, 2007 12:22 PM
7

beantown baby!!

and sexson is a joke.

Posted by mike | February 21, 2007 12:23 PM
8

Man, Ichiro would look good at Wrigley. Could cover all of Center and half of right and left field. But that's just a dream, like the Cubs signing Alfonso Soriano.

Wait. . .

Posted by Chicago Fan | February 21, 2007 12:35 PM
9

I agree with john @ #2

Its far time for Ichiro to DTMFA!

we are draging him down.

Posted by Codes | February 21, 2007 12:41 PM
10

"because in 2008 he’ll no doubt be in pinstripes"

God, I'd forgotten how much I hate the Yankees.

It's baseball season again!

Posted by asdf | February 21, 2007 12:51 PM
11

I'm as strong a naysayer as anyone about this team, but we do have some good players. Ichiro is not the whole story. We are short on real pitching still, but our offense is decent as long as WFB is on the bench, and our defense is extremely strong. We're only a player or two away from being a serious threat.

There's an excellent chance that as a free agent crossing into his late 30s Ichiro will be by next year the recipient of an absurdly overpriced contract. That sounds like the Cubs to me.

Posted by Fnarf | February 21, 2007 12:53 PM
12

He would look good at Busch too. Jimmy Edmonds is getting old; Ichiro would make a nice replacement. And we already have a Japanese player, so he would feel right at home...

Posted by Mike in MO | February 21, 2007 12:56 PM
13

I'd trade Ichiro and Betancourt for A-Rod, Pavano and cash. The Yankees can get rid of two of their headaches and the Mariners can get some power and pitching.

That might be the dumbest trade I've heard in a long time. You'd trade a guy making $9M and the best young SS in the game for a guy making $25M in his decline years and a $9M pitcher who hasn't thrown in what, two years? You'd take on $24M in salary for a guy that will basically hit like Beltre and a guy who will do no more work than cash checks?

No wonder the light rail has been such a trainwreck. People like this keep sticking their hand up and saying, "OOOH! I HAVE A GREAT IDEA!!!"

Posted by dw | February 21, 2007 1:05 PM
14

Hey dw... Pay attention:

The M's wouldn't have to pay AROD anything close to $25M. The Rangers picked up about a third of his contract when he was traded. And the Yankees would likely pick up even more of that just to get rid of him. You could get him for LESS than what Ichiro will demand in free agency.

And since when is age 31 "the decline years"?

As for Pavano, the M's need pitching and he makes much less than Gil Meche!

Posted by DOUG. | February 21, 2007 1:23 PM
15

NO!!!!! Ichiro is half of why I have seen the Mariners games at the ballfield!

Can't we put a LID on the multi-millionaire condo owners downtown to pay to keep him?

Posted by Will in Seattle | February 21, 2007 1:36 PM
16

Yay! With the departure of Ichiro, the Mariners will be utterly devoid of talent, and barring sensible management, will become the Montreal Expos and depart from Seattle. Then, it's only a matter of time before the Seahawks go away.

Posted by Gitai | February 21, 2007 2:32 PM
17

Pinstripes? Is he thinking of heading to Arizona - where good players go to have their careers wither and die? 'cause the Yankees are rather full-up right now and not about to part with A-Rod...though I think it's hilarious to hear people talk about how he's such a valueless headache in the same breath they fatasize about having him join their team. Pavano, well, that's another story, though I hear he's looking quite well (and, so he should after, what?, two years?, off).

Posted by dewsterling | February 21, 2007 2:36 PM
18

Gitai,

I think that is exactly what the great people of Seattle are hoping for.

Posted by dewsterling | February 21, 2007 2:38 PM
19

31 is definitely into the decline years. Players tend to peak at age 27. Special players like ARod, though, don't follow the rules. ARod's troubles in New York, which are not surprisingly troubles with media relations, not with baseball playing, have made him possibly the most underrated player in the game. Millions of New Yorkers think he's a prima donna and a bum, while simultaneously revering Derek Jeter, who could never carry his jock (or his glove).

ARod's still got a chance to wind up the greatest player in the history of the game. He's sure as hell no Adrian Beltre. He's going to hit his 500th HR this year, and be the youngest player ever to do that (as he was 400, 300, and 200 before that).

Posted by Fnarf | February 21, 2007 3:28 PM
20

"Players tend to peak at age 27". I think you're thinking of rock stars dying. It's well-known that 27 is just the beginning of a baseball player's prime years.

Posted by DOUG. | February 21, 2007 4:26 PM
21

Regardless, he's past 30, meaning he's in his decline phase. His best years are getting behind him. His defense, as you saw last year, is starting to leave him. He's eventually going to have to move to one of the corners or 1b, probably as soon as Steinbrenner pries Alex Gordon out of the Royals for $24 in beads and trinkets.

And of top of that, you really think an injured, non-reporting $10M Pavano (who has whispers of labrum problems following him) is better than $3M Miguel Batista? PECOTA says that Pavano's 50/50, assuming he's uninjured, is 2.3 WARP. Batista's 50/50 is 1.5 WARP. You want to spend $7M on 0.8 WARP? Willie Bloomquist's 50/50 is 0.7 WARP, and he's making $1M this year. Who will be playing SS in 2008 under your plan because A-Rod's glove will drive him into LF. Oh, and Jeff "the brother who can't pitch" Weaver's 50/50? 2.5 WARP. $8M contract.

Honestly, this is KJR dumb. Ichiro and Feierabend for Jose Tabata, Humberto Sanchez, and 1/2 of Pavano's contract? Yes please. Because then you're actually getting some prospects with your salary dump.

Posted by dw | February 21, 2007 5:00 PM
22

It is, in actual fact, well known that baseball players tend to peak at 27. There's some research that suggests that pitchers, particularly star pitchers, peak a bit later than that, but for all players combined performance is a bell curve with the top of the curve over age 27. Really. You could look it up.

The vast majority of major leaguers are out of baseball by 30. You remember the ones who aren't, but you don't remember the many.

That's not to say that some individual players have had career peaks later than that, and certainly star players continue to have excellent seasons late into their 30s, but even they tend to peak at 27, really 25-28 on average.

This is a stathead truism, and was one of the first real revelations of the Bill James Handbooks in the early 1980s, backed up many times since. See http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/woolner/peakage.htm

The inability to recognize this is one of the key ways that smart general managers beat the pants off dumb ones, even today. Remember Branch Rickey? "It's better to trade 'em a year too early than a year too late". Good teams concentrate on young players.

Posted by Fnarf | February 21, 2007 5:33 PM
23

Fuck A-Rod. I'd take him back.

Posted by Lloyd Clydesdale | February 21, 2007 11:48 PM

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