News Re: “The Base” My Ass
posted by on January 3 at 10:30 AM
I disagree with Josh’s analysis of Ethiopia’s recent victory over Islamist forces in Somalia.
First, I think it’s way premature to say that the quick Ethiopian victory in Somalia indicates that the fight against Islamic fascism need not be a long one. It merely indicates that a better-equipped army can often prevail in the short term against a poorly-equipped adversary. This is what we saw with the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, but as we also know from those conflicts, the problem is not in achieving a short-term military victory against a ragtag army, but rather in securing long-term stability.
The Islamist fighters in Somalia are following the same playbook used by the Taliban in Afghanistan, and later by the Baathist loyalists and insurgents in Iraq: Melt into the countryside when presented with overwhelming force, and live to fight a guerilla insurgency another day. In this sense, the conflict in Somalia is not a corrective to the U.S. experience in Iraq or Afghanistan. It is, so far, an eerie echo.
Here is how today’s New York Times describes the same attack on Ethiopian soldiers that, in the article cited by Josh, is given an Ethiopia-boosting gloss.
Two Ethiopian soldiers were gunned down in an ambush in southern Somalia in one of the first strikes of an anticipated anti-Ethiopian guerrilla campaign.According to residents in Jilib, about 250 miles southwest of Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital, a fighter for the Islamist forces, who were routed last week by Ethiopian-led troops, had shot two Ethiopian soldiers while they were crossing a bridge. Witnesses said the fighter then dashed into town and was quickly surrounded by Ethiopian troops, who killed him.
“It was a suicide mission,” said Mohammed Subiye, a farmer in Jilib.
The Islamist forces, which in the span of one week went from ruling much of Somalia to fleeing into the bush, have vowed to fight a guerrilla insurgency against the Ethiopians, whom they consider infidel invaders.
Sound familiar?
The other parallel with the U.S. experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan is that Ethiopia has invaded Somalia without a clear plan for securing the peace (much less the finances to do so). Again, from today’s New York Times:
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia said Tuesday that his country, one of the poorest in the world, could not afford to keep troops in Somalia much longer and that it was ill equipped to play the role of peacekeeper there.
Hopefully an international force will materialize, but it’s still not clear that one will, and if one doesn’t materialize, and Ethiopia withdraws, what next? (Again, sound familiar?)
Here’s the second point on which I disagree with Josh. He writes:
The Ethiopians have shown us that we were stupid to take our eyes off the real war: A war against an ephemeral, illegitimate movement that collapses in a week.
But Ethiopia’s military is equipped by the United States, and all the reports I’ve read about this recent conflict indicate that U.S. military advisers are working with the Ethiopians and U.S. officials approved the invasion. The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet is currently watching the Somali coastline for Islamist refugees. U.S. spy planes were over Somalia last week beaming back information to the Ethiopian army.
In other words, the conflict between Ehtiopia and the Somali Islamist forces may actually show that the U.S. has found a politically smarter way to wage war against an illegitimate Islamist government: Get another, non-Western army to do it, which somewhat neutralizes the East vs. West “clash of civilizations” rallying cry (though, in the case of Christian Ethiopia, not the Christian vs. Muslim rallying cry) and then refrain from taking any credit for the victory which, given the U.S.’s toxicity on some segments of the international stage right now, might actually make it easier to secure international assistance after the initial invasion.
All of which shows, again, that there is no easy military solution to the problem of Islamist fascism, and that this probably will be a long conflict one in which military might is not the silver bullet, but rather one piece of a complex, slow process.
I'm more inclined to agree with you, Eli, though I thought Josh made some interesting points. I too think that the quick military victory might be comparatively meaningless in the long run. There's some truth to the saying "the terrorists only need to succeed once, we need to be successful constantly." In other words, al-Qaeda doesn't need to govern, it just needs to attack intermittently and sap its opponent. And if Somalia becomes an international staging ground, it could get as ugly as Iraq or Afghanistan.
I wouldn't take that comment about not being able to afford to stay there too seriously. I think that's mostly to get the US to pony up extra military aid. Ethiopia managed to keep up a border war with Eritrea for years, and they had far less at stake in that war than in keeping Somalia secular and divided. Additionally, you'll note that Ethiopia hasn't remained at peace for very long. Without being constantly at war, the repressive government of Ethiopia wouldn't have an emergency justifying their suspension of the constitution.
I'm more inclined to agree with you, Eli, though I thought Josh made some interesting points. I too think that the quick military victory might be comparatively meaningless in the long run. There's some truth to the saying "the terrorists only need to succeed once, we need to be successful constantly." In other words, al-Qaeda doesn't need to govern, it just needs to attack intermittently and sap its opponent. And if Somalia becomes an international staging ground, it could get as ugly as Iraq or Afghanistan.
Sadly, Josh is right. The sooner we end this farce in Iraq and get our military back on target, the better. But I don't hold out much hope for that, the reds in the Red House are out to lunch and not likely to do anything until they're kicked out in 2008.
I should add, I think that the British government's decision to stop using the metaphor of the "war on terror" is a good start, and it never should've been visualized that way. The military aspect, as Eli says, should be just one aspect.
islamofascism is an inaccurate phrase that uselessly attempts to revive some sense that the us is fighting the good war all over again. it's not. the us is fighting the effects of its uncritical support for israel's apartheid regime. oh, and something about oil. and something about empire and some kind of fantasy about a new american century. meanwhile the democratic party can't even find the wherewithal to stand unified against sending 30,000 additional troops to iraq.
The balkanized chaos in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia is not fascism, let alone "Islamist fascism".
The phrase "Islamist fascism" was invented by the Bush administration as branding for his miserable foreign policy. It is propaganda. Given that truly fascists states have been overwhelmingly secular, it may even be an oxymoron. The fact that your are using this phrase suggests ignorance.
Sean: If the impulse of the Islamists is not toward fascism, then what is it?
Yeah, the Islamo-Fascist tag is purely for the use of retards.
Weirldly just as neoconservatism slips off the map in the real world The Stranger seems to be re-inventing it from first principles. I fully expect them to see them endorcing the invasion and democratization of "backwards" muslim countries any time soon.
Hey, Art, let's see that list of "forward" Muslim countries.
Eli: There is no single Islamist impulse, anymore than there is a single Christian, Jewish, or Socialist impulse.
However, just like every other fascist dictator in history, those of the middle east (Khadaffi, Saddam Hussein) were wary of religious movements, because if allowed to flourish, they undermine the dictator's power. Dictators will certainly use religion and ethnicity as tools to divide their enemies or distract people with a scapegoat. But if an individual priest or cleric starts drumming up too much religious fervor, the skilled dictator will have him executed.
If you really believe that the Islamists and their ragtag assortment of McGyver-like terrorists are the principal threat to the US, then the US should be courting the fascist dictators in the middle east as the lesser of two evils. Kind of like we do with Pakistan, and did in South America to combat the spread of socialism.
Just because one group (Islamist Fundamentalist Terrorists) is Fascist doesn't mean another group supposedly fighting them (hint - in Afghanistan, not Iraq) (Bushie Fundamentalist Extremists) isn't also Fascist.
Both are.
But, sending US dollars to Saudi Arabia is NOT helping - something the EU already figured out. But we haven't.
“But Ethiopia’s military is equipped by the United States, and all the reports I’ve read about this recent conflict indicate that U.S. military advisers are working with the Ethiopians and U.S. officials approved the invasion.”
WRONG!
Ethiopia’s tanks are Soviet made T54, T55, and T62
Ethiopia’s artillery is Communist Bloc manufactured as well
Ethiopia’s aircraft that she has been using in this conflict are Soviet Hind helicopters and MiG fighter-bombers.
This equipment is what won against the more lightly armed Islamic Courts Militia
.
"They had far less at stake in that war (with Eritrea) than in keeping Somalia secular and divided”
I disagree, Ethiopia needs access to the sea for it’s markets…
All that said, I agree with Eli that winning the initial combat against the more lightly armed Islamic Courts Militia doesn’t have greater meaning that just that.
What happens next is what is important, i.e. whether there is guerilla warfare, whether as much or more stability than the Islamic Courts Union provided comes about, etc...
The best thing to happen next would be for an international peacekeeping force, preferably from African nations, to take over from the Ethiopians.
The longer the Ethiopians stay, the more folks that are likely act against progress in Somailia because they are irked by their historical enemies presence.
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