City Fun with crime stats
posted by on January 2 at 14:12 PM
The Post Intelligencer reports this morning that Seattle homicides rose last year. True, there were 29 intentional killings in 2006, compared with 25 last year. (These numbers need as asterisk: the 29 comes from the PI, which ostensibly obtained their data through public records requests. The 25 comes from the Police Department website, which doesn’t have numbers for 2006 yet.) Still, a little reality check is in order: Without the six people killed in Kyle Huff’s Capitol Hill rampage, this year’s homicide total would be 23 —- two bodies fewer than in 2005. The PI’s Hector Castro mentions the massacre, and the fact that violent crime here is only expected to rise 1 percent this year. But these mitigating facts are tacked on with all the gravity of a dismissive flick of the wrist. The message of the article blazes through: Run for cover, crime is coming! It’s true, violent crime — murder in particular — has ticked up slightly in the U.S. Especially in mid-sized cities like Seattle. But this is no cataclysmic surge. Violent crime is still fall lower than it was in the 1970s, or the 1990s. Meanwhile, other problems have grown. Castro also refers, yet again, to a new statistic I find rather troubling, the meteoric rise of gun-related assaults in the city. What Castro doesn’t mention is that the stat includes any aggravated assault in which a gun was used, displayed, threatened, or implied. The police only began collecting the data two years ago.

We took a different tack with the same numbers. Here's the main report that shows what the PI skipped over -- total crime is actually down vs. 2005. You also look up the specific change for each category of crime in your area of the city.
In other news: Ignoring the mass murders, car bombings, and civil war in Iraq, violence is in Baghdad!
PI sensationalism is sorta sad these days. I wonder if it actually works to increase circulation.
If you torture them long enough, and hard enough, numbers will confess to anything.
wow. jacksonville had 136 in 2006. ya'll are doing pretty well.
Anyone looked at a 100 year graph of the numbers?
Face it, the trend is down - way down.
The only thing dying is the murder rate. Although I totally disagree with your "well, massacres shouldn't be included in the murder rate" argument. That's pretty lame, as if those people count for nothing?? But I do agree the PI is torturing the numbers to create a story. Fun with statistics!!
It's not that massacres shouldn't count, it's that Seattle has a pretty low murder rate anyway. When the murder rate is in the low double digits, a slight uptick in one year doesn't spell disaster, especially when that uptick can be attributed to a single asshole.
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