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Wednesday, December 20, 2006

WSDOT Releasing New (Higher) Cost Estimates on RTID Roads Projects

posted by on December 20 at 16:45 PM

As everyone knows, inflation jacked up the cost estimates for the Viaduct tunnel plan: Originally between $2.98 and $3.6 billion … now between $3.6 and $5.5 billion.

Inflation also did a number on 520 cost estimates: Formerly beween $2.7 and $3.1 billion to now between $3.3 and $5.4 billion.

With that in mind, we’ve been waiting for the inflation updates on the other 14 projects slated for RTID. Before the inflation update, RTID’s project list was coming in at around $7.4 billion total.

I had done a public records request for the numbers last week, but no need, WSDOT will be releasing the numbers tomorrow.

All I could get out of spokesperson Joy Carpine is that there will be “commodity and inflation increases across the board.”

The significance of RTID cost increases is this: the RTID vote is (stupidly) tied to the Sound Transit vote. And so, as costs spike for roads, costs for mass transit spike too.

First order of business for the new legislature should be to decouple RTID and Sound Transit.

RSS icon Comments

1

Joining the two was a political necessity. There'd be a "roads vs. transit" battle royale if they're de-coupled.

I'm the biggest transit fan there is, but SR 520 needs the rebuild work done ASAP (I'm also a realist about the region's economy).

Probably the best way to go would be for the State to take the lead on the two state highway projects. We don't really need the rest of the RTID projects as much. After we get underway on those, (say in 2008) we should have a "rest of RTID" vote, and a separate ST2 vote.

We'll have a better idea of costs, better idea for local citizens' tax tolerances, etc. ST is great, but let's just make sure these trains run to the airport and back before committing to the "whole enchilada" right away. We've been working at ST for a decade: let's give the 520 and 99 projects priority. Plus, I like surface + transit, and ST should add the "transit" part of that option for 99 to its list of ST2 projects.

Just my 2 cents . . .. .

Posted by don't de-couple | December 20, 2006 4:59 PM
2

If RTID isn't decoupled, ST will die.

Seriously, RTID is almost as dead as the underwater tunnel boondoggle, in it's current form. I agree SR 520 bridge needs to be done, but right now it's pushing guava up hill, thanks to Greg N.

But inaction won't save RTID.

Posted by Will in Seattle | December 20, 2006 5:01 PM
3

I want them coupled. I want there to be a entity that coordinates the transportation policy- both roads and transit for the region. Otherwise, we won't solve the transportation problems.

Posted by Dave Coffman | December 20, 2006 5:32 PM
4

In political and PR circles, putting out damaging-to-one's-cause information on the Thursday before Christmas is referred to as "putting it out with the trash" - i.e., it guarantees less media coverage. I'm surprised they're not waiting until Friday. And to think I once thought Doug McDonald had a backbone...

Posted by Ryan | December 20, 2006 6:09 PM
5

Josh, not sure if you picked up on this, but at a recent CityClub year-in-review forum, Ed Murray cited his past support for coupling ST and RTID on the ballot, when asked by moderator CR Douglas to identify "your biggest regret this year." Maybe you should ask him if he's planning to act on this recent change of heart when the state senate convenes in January.

Posted by Hot Tipster | December 20, 2006 6:13 PM
6

I'm all for fixing 520 too, but the $800 million proposed in RTID ain't gonna be enough. Meanwhile, it drops $1.3 billion to widen 405, and hundreds of millions to facilitate sprawl in Snohomish & Pierce? Where are the priorities?

We should take a lesson from Denver and make our megaprojects standalone road+transit bundles.


Prop 1: Rebuild Alaskan Way Viaduct, build streetcar lines to Ballard & West Seattle.


Prop 2: Rebuild 520 bridge, lightrail to Redmond.


Then next election season:


Prop 1: Finish 509, extend light rail to Federal Way.


Prop 2: Widen 405, add light rail Bellevue-Renton.


and so on...

Posted by Some Jerk | December 20, 2006 7:11 PM
7

Um, I don't see how doing that solves the inflation problem, Josh.

Posted by Gomez | December 20, 2006 9:58 PM
8

Gomez,
A $7.4 billion and rising roads package coupled with a $9.5 billion transit package ... means we're talking about a $20 billion package. That's a big number for voters to swallow. Since the two plans are now one couple.... they're both going to have to scale back—meaning light rail is going to have to skimp and shorten and delete lines. That's bad for transit. If light rail didn't didn't have the extra billions from roads spoiling its chances, it could go full steam ahead.

So, decoupling doesn't solve the inflation problem...but it let's light rail pass a full and useful package of mass transit.

Posted by Josh Feit | December 20, 2006 10:48 PM
9

I'm all for decoupling transit and road projects, but for exactly the opposite reason from Josh: I'm confident that transit will go down in flames if overwhelmingly car-driving voters have the option to ditch transit funding. (At least, if voters outside "taxes are all good" Seattle get a say.)

Before so cavalierly proposing such a decoupling, Josh might want to ponder why more politically astute transit advocates work so hard with transit-friendly politicians behind closed doors to ensure that transit funding is attached to road proposals.

Perhaps Josh's political instincts have been adled by working in the echo-chamber of a publication, 55% of whoose readers favor the teardown+transit option for the viaduct, when out in the real world, that proposal would be luckly to garner 5.5% of the vote.

Posted by David Wright | December 21, 2006 3:50 AM
10

Ah, I see. That makes sense. Thanks, Josh.

Posted by Gomez | December 21, 2006 8:16 AM
11

@9--I find myself in the odd position of defending Josh's views on transportation. But in this case Josh is correct. Several polls have conclusively shown that transit polls about 10-15% better than roads packages.

Perhaps this is because so many people have moved here from places with transit. They know that transit is a better use of money than trying to build your way out of congestion with more lanes. The 1.3 billion in the RTID package for 405 is a prime example. The two lanes they add each direction between Renton and Bellevue will be full the day they open with little time improvement. That is a suckers game.

Transit offers the ability to change where we put future growth and to begin to change the paradigm so that our roads can actually work because less people need to use them.

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