A good friend of mine—a whip smart researcher for a fancy Wall Street firm—is pretty obsessive about politics, and he just did his own poll of colleagues, family and friends (nationwide) to come up with betting odds on which Democrat and which Republican will get their party’s nomination in ‘08. (This guy is also a bit of a gambler.)

I was one of the people he polled, so, you may want to discount his research right off the bat, but here’s his current odds. And at the end, he does a little analysis.

Democratic Party Nomination odds (X:1)

1) Hillary Clinton 1.8
2) Barack Obama 2.7
3) John Edwards 8.7
4) Al Gore 13.0
5) Evan Bayh 15.2
6) Wes Clark 28.3
7) Joe Biden 29.0
8) John Kerry 35.8
9) Howard Dean 73.1
10) Tom Vilsack 170.4
11) Harold Ford, Jr. 186.5
12) Janet Napolitano 192.5
13) Tim Kaine 192.5
14) Bill Richardson 199.0
15) Andy Stern 5999.0
16) Jennifer Granholm 5999.0

Republican Party Nomination odds (X:1)

1) John McCain 1.8
2) Rudy Giuliani 3.7
3) Mitt Romney 6.2
4) Jeb Bush 13.3
5) Newt Gingrich 24.0
6) Dick Cheney 26.3
7) Mike Huckabee 33.9
8) Chuck Hagel 36.5
9) Bill Frist 38.7
10) Condoleeza Rice 53.5
11) Sam Brownback 71.3
12) Colin Powell 84.7
13) Bill Owens 192.5
14) George Pataki 399.0
15) Dick Armey 499.0
16) George Allen 544.5
17) Patrick Fitzgerald 544.5
18) Duncan Hunter 544.5
19) Tim Pawlenty 544.5
20) Mark Sanford 544.5
21) Tom Tancredo 544.5

Obviously Frist is now out. Interesting stuff: Obama is really close to Hillary. Al Gore could make things interesting if he announces. Guys like Vilsack and Richardson are toast, in my opinion. Jeb Bush is way too high, he may get a chance, but not the next go round - people need a break from “Bush.” I wonder if Condy Rice could shoot up to #2 or #3 if she announced? From this list it looks like the Republicans will pragmatically swing towards the middle (McCain, Giuliani, Romney). I’m not so sure they will though - it wouldn’t surprise me if guy like Huckabee or Brownback consolidates the religious and far right vote as a counter to McCain or Giuliani. McCain is obviously trying to veer right to head off that strategy. If Obama jumps in, I think a bunch of those dems should just drop out - Obama will siphon off tons of money and talent.