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Monday, November 20, 2006

The Blue West

posted by on November 20 at 14:15 PM

Before you consider the map below (a map that Kos just brought to my attention) first consider how all-over-the-map this publication has been on the subject of rural voters.

Nevermind the 2004 Urban Archipelago manifesto (published before I was on staff) and the question of whether or not it is now “quaint.” The last few weeks alone have brought a dizzying number follow-up stories and blog posts about the rural vote and how it should be viewed by urban liberals.

Dan wants to keep calling rural voters “rubes.” Charles prefers the term “muddy people.” Brian Mann talks about “homelanders” and how the embrace of them is killing the Republican Party. I say that a lot of this “rube”-bashing by liberals is hypocritical and self-defeating, especially in light of this guy’s victory and the role it played in giving Democrats control of the Senate. And Postman finds it all very confusing.

Well, how about a pretty map to clear things up?

westerndems.jpg

This map comes from the Salt Lake Tribune, which did an analysis of Democratic gains in the Mountain West this year and reports:

After the Republican landslide of 1994, Democrats spent six years in a Western political wilderness. But since 2000, Democrats regionwide have hacked into the Republican majorities.

A Tribune analysis of U.S. House results shows that Democrats have narrowed a 20-point GOP edge in 2000 to a slim 48 percent to 47 percent deficit in 2006. In three states - Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico - Democrats have turned their red states blue, winning a majority in the House races.

In 1996, the eight states in the Rocky Mountain West sent 18 Republicans and four Democrats to the House. When Congress convenes next year, there will be 11 Democrats and 15 Republicans representing the Western districts.

Democrats now control five of the eight governorships and, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, picked up seats in five of the eight legislatures in 2006.

“All the way from Canada to Mexico you’re seeing blue,” says New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

“You now have five Western states that are in critical play for 2008,” says Denver-based political activist Mike Stratton, referring to Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and, now, Montana. A Democratic presidential candidate who can win two or three of those states will win the White House, he says.

In other words, at stake in the debate over how talk about (and to) rural voters is not just the prize for best political insult. It’s the ultimate political prize: the presidency.

RSS icon Comments

1

THANK YOU. At least someone isn't totally blind.

Posted by charles | November 20, 2006 2:14 PM
2

Most of the gains in this election were in the Ex-urbs, not truly rural areas, right?

Nasty tone aside, the core message of the Urban Archipelago still rings true: The Democratic party should not abandon its commitment to liberal progressive values in an attempt to curry favor with rural voters unwilling or unable to look beyond social wedge issues.

Much of the recent success in the inter-mountain west seems a backlash against poorly implemented trade deals. If anyone should be cleaning up in globalized economy, it should be rural farmers. They are in possession of true and deep structural advantages over any of their global competitors, including well-regulated and relatively plentiful water, rich soil, excellent transportation and processing infrastructure....

Yet most farmers are going slowly (or quickly) broke. Much of resurgent liberalism in places like Montana has come on the back of criticism of our trade policies, taking apart the false duality of no trade or this set of trade policies, demanding a better deal for American farmers on the global marketplace.

Posted by golob | November 20, 2006 2:53 PM
3

I've seen a faked out county map, which of course, overrepresents red areas (since noone lives there, they tend to be huge but have no voters to speak of).

Be interesting to see a population map.

I for one love all 50 states. DC I'm not so sure of, though ...

Posted by Will in Seattle | November 20, 2006 3:06 PM
4

OH, DC's terrific once you get into the neighborhoods (some of them).

Worrying about how farmers vote is like worrying about how blacksmiths vote. There just aren't that many of them. But there is a farm culture in the red areas that revolves around farming even if most of the farming itself is done by one guy sitting in a ten-million-dollar combine.

But yes, exurbs. That's where people live. And these people can be courted without blowing your principles -- in fact, blowing your principles to court their votes is exactly what gets you in trouble in the long run out West.

The strategy of recapturing the American ideal for the Dems, and leaving the GOP to hunker down in the Deep South, is a good one. The rubes are willing to listen if you can convince them you're not lying out your ass to them, and if you have some kind of positive direction forward or at least a glimmer of one.

That's what it boils down to: who has the future? The Dems are extremely adept at pointing out what's wrong with the GOP, but that's never going to win any votes. In 2006, they (falteringly) picked up a positive future-oriented message, but what really put them over was the complete and utter collapse of the GOP's future. All the pie charts in the world aren't going to help in 2008 if all you have is the hope that that continues.

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