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Friday, November 10, 2006

New Burner-Reichert Numbers

posted by on November 10 at 18:20 PM

Yesterday Burner was behind Reichert by 3,237 votes. Today she’s behind him by 3,120 votes.

So Burner has narrowed Reichert’s lead, but only by a very small amount—about 100 votes.

The current spread in percentage terms is basically the same: Burner’s at 49.09 percent, while Reichert’s at 50.91 percent.

And keep in mind, only King County was counting votes today. Pierce County took the day off. So if the Burner campaign was counting on blue King County (which it was) to help Burner pull ahead, it doesn’t look like King County has come through—yet. More results tomorrow evening.

UPDATE: Whoops! Looks like I didn’t use the latest, latest, super-latest numbers for my post. Not to be surly, but since the only skills necessary for keeping up with this race are A) the ability to use an Internet browser in a timely manner and B) the ability to employ some basic high school math, y’all can do it yourself and I’ll get back on top of this tomorrow. Click here, grab a calculator, and go crazy!

RSS icon Comments

1

Eli, you're just stating King County's tally change of yesterday. They haven't yet posted today's.

Posted by Daniel K | November 10, 2006 6:34 PM
2

Eli, you're off. The only reason that there was an appearance of "narrowing" from 3,237 to 3,120 is because the first number was based on yesterday's report from Pierce, but not King, and the second number is after both counties reported. In fact, Reichert's lead widened from Tuesday to Wednesday and from Wednesday to Thursday.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky | November 10, 2006 6:36 PM
3

Today's King County numbers just came in. Very reassuring for Reichert.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky | November 10, 2006 6:42 PM
4

Now they've been updated. The lead narrows by 25 votes. New totals are Burner 90,188, Reichert 93,283.

Posted by Daniel K | November 10, 2006 6:43 PM
5

Can someone explain to me Reichert's appeal (beyond his hair)?

Posted by golob | November 10, 2006 7:25 PM
6

it is over - burner needs to concede with style

the sore and clinging loser stuff does not play well for a future campaign try

Posted by George | November 10, 2006 7:31 PM
7

George - A candidate doesn't concede when the results are this close and there are enough votes and conditions in which they can catch up. It is simply too early to make such a judgement. Reichert wouldn't do it, or be expected to, if the situation was reversed.

As others have wisely said, sit tight and let them count the votes.

Posted by Daniel K | November 10, 2006 8:00 PM
8

This is just one of the little frustrations we will need to learn to live with.

Back in the day when everyone voted in voting booths, most of the election return came in over night, as the vast majority of ballots were counted immediately.

Now that most counties are mail-in ballot only, and even in King County where it's optional, a majority of people are choosing mail-in ballots anyway, it can take a week after election day just to receive all the ballots that have been mailed on election day. The result: slow motion ballot counting. Sure it's frustrating. "I voted. Now tell me if my candidate won!" Especially when we see most of the rest of the country getting more-or-less instant results (even most of the tight races were called yesterday). But unless it is a blowout, all close races in the future are going to be like this. A week or more for final results. Get used to it.

Posted by SDA in SEA | November 10, 2006 9:07 PM
9

Whatever happens in this race, Stefan, your team lost big in this election, and they earned this crushing defeat. The Republicans can't govern their way out of a wet paper bag. They have no foresight, no ballast, no perspective, no intelligence, and they have run the country into the ground. And lemmings like you blindly follow them, eagerly gobbling up the huge shit sandwich they've been feeding this country.

You are a sheep, not a shark. Baaaahh. Baaaahhhh. Baaaaahhhaaah!

Posted by Sean | November 10, 2006 10:36 PM
10

I am AMUSED that Sharkansky is haunting several progressive blogs commenting on this issue. Guy's got his own blog for godsake but nobody seems to go there so he has to come out of his hole to get some company.

Posted by Mirror | November 10, 2006 11:25 PM
11

Definately going to be tough. Certainly if half or more of the 10,000 provisional ballots are thrown out, the assumed Democratic advantage there cant amount to more than 1000 optimistically. If my thought there is correct, it means she has to make up over 2000 with the remaining mail-ins.

I'm guessing the Darcy-as-tax-monster commercials with the Exorcist music in the background might have put the fear of god into a significant bloc of last minute mail voters who know nothing about Iraq but are clear on being against satan-possessed women threatening to raise their taxes.

Posted by Miror | November 10, 2006 11:32 PM
12

She needs to concede. All in all, however, she did very well for an unqualified (and who is?) political neophyte.

Next time they should run someone for the post with experience and a little street cred. Then I'll be curious about the numbers.

Posted by Napoleon XIV | November 11, 2006 3:11 AM
13

Where were all these people clamoring for her to concede when Dino was pitching his various fits?

Wait until the last vote is counted, and then we'll take about conceding.

Posted by Dino Rossi was a sore loser | November 11, 2006 6:56 AM
14

Unless the next count significantly closes the gap, I think Burner needs to concede after the next numbers are released. In a single district, 3100 votes is a lot of ground to make up, and you're hoping that the remaining ballots buck the voting trend that the previous ballots set, from the exact same election in the exact same district. Not likely.

Posted by Gomez | November 11, 2006 8:38 AM
15

Can you hear it now?.....sheriff Reicherts themesong and next he's a commin after you just like he did to that bus driver......
Reicherts theme:

Rollin' Rollin' Rollin'

Keep movin', movin', movin',
Though they're disapprovin',
Keep them doggies movin' Rawhide!
Don't try to understand 'em,
Just rope and throw and grab 'em,
Soon we'll be living high and wide.
Boy my heart's calculatin'
My true love will be waitin', be waiting at the end of my ride.

Move 'em on, head 'em up,
Head 'em up, move 'em out,
Move 'em on, head 'em out Rawhide!
Set 'em out, ride 'em in
Ride 'em in, let 'em out,
Cut 'em out, ride 'em in Rawhide.

Full Lyrics

Rollin', rollin', rollin'
Rollin', rollin', rollin'
Rollin', rollin', rollin'
Rollin', rollin', rollin'
Rawhide!

Rollin', rollin', rollin'
Though the streams are swollen
Keep them dogies rollin'
Rawhide!
Rain and wind and weather
Hell-bent for leather
Wishin' my gal was by my side.
All the things I'm missin',
Good vittles, love, and kissin',
Are waiting at the end of my ride

CHORUS
Move 'em on, head 'em up
Head 'em up, move 'em on
Move 'em on, head 'em up
Rawhide
Count 'em out, ride 'em in,
Ride 'em in, count 'em out,
Count 'em out, ride 'em in
Rawhide!

Keep movin', movin', movin'
Though they're disapprovin'
Keep them dogies movin'
Rawhide!
Don't try to understand 'em
Just rope, throw, and brand 'em
Soon we'll be living high and wide.
My hearts calculatin'
My true love will be waitin',
Be waitin' at the end of my ride.

Rawhide!
Rawhide!

Posted by sputnik | November 11, 2006 11:03 AM
16

"Unless the next count significantly closes the gap, I think Burner needs to concede after the next numbers are released. In a single district, 3100 votes is a lot of ground to make up, and you're hoping that the remaining ballots buck the voting trend that the previous ballots set, from the exact same election in the exact same district. Not likely."

Not unlikely enough to concede only to find that the final count could change matters.

There is no reason to rush. The world won't stop spinning by waiting until all the ballots are in and counted.

Posted by Daniel K | November 11, 2006 5:17 PM
17

Burner presented a great campaign - for a little known and beginning political player she almost upset the Sheriff.

It was a long shot all along, I predicted Reichert by two points months ago, and then as the Burner campaign really got hot wondered indeed if she might squeak by.

I wish Dave Ross would have run again, he would have won.

Brudner needs to bide her time, go on the city council in Redmond, run for county council. Try for congress again in ten years.

If Reichert can hold his job in this election, it will be even more difficult to take him out. And his consultants will get him to learn a bit from the campaign.

It seems the Burner folks made a mistke in not working Pierce to the max. Too Bellevue-Kirkland-Redmond focused.

Onward.

Posted by George | November 11, 2006 10:28 PM
18

She can wait all she wants, but with her deficit growing with every posted count, it's not trending her way. There is no uncounted magic ballot box somewhere where all the votes are for her. If the first 150 boxes counted out to the current ratios, the chances of the last 50 counting dramatically different are very slim.

If 3100 becomes 1000, then she can wait and see, but if it grows to 3500-4000, or makes no real shift, with fewer votes to count, then she might as well call it.

Posted by Gomez | November 11, 2006 10:32 PM
19

The only way Burner will pull this out is if King County election "officials" manage to manufacture a few thousand votes for her.... Could the broken and overstuffed ballot bags do the trick? Maybe Gregoire's team can get in and remind them how it works. If Reichert's lead keeps growing, it may be difficult to find enough lost ballots to make up the difference with fraud.

Most of all, this election is a reminder of the incompetence (or fraud?) of King County elections officials. Their offices should be overrun by people who believe in the integrity of a democratic election. The US Attorney should really look into King County's clear violations of federal elections laws. I think the feds frown on messing with a federal election (the US attorney's office said they would not get involved in the Gregoire mess because it was a state race -- not true this time!). The feds should go in and take custody of the ballots before the incompetence of King County officials undermine voter confidence any further.

Posted by TC | November 13, 2006 8:01 AM
20

TC - take you troll nut stuff back to unsound - there is no fraud, just slow counting.

Posted by ken | November 13, 2006 5:57 PM
21

TC, you remind me of me.

And thanks to Mr. Sharkansky for jumping the shark and coming over to this 'hood to elevate the Slog IQ. God knows the Slog IQ needed raising.

That said, Sean is right. We got beaten like a tin drum (or eaten like a shit sandwich), and we've had it coming since about February 1995. Baaah, indeed, and humbug.

Posted by Mistress Pelosi | November 14, 2006 11:37 AM
22

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