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Monday, November 6, 2006

Election-Eve Tracking Poll: Burner and Reichert Dead Even

posted by on November 6 at 19:12 PM

The fourth and final tracking poll from Survey USA/KING 5 TV is in, and it shows a tie in the 8th District House race, with Darcy Burner and Dave Reichert each getting 49 percent of the vote (margin of error +/- 3.8 percent).

I was following Burner around today on her last full day of campaigning, and here’s one thing I learned: No one who’s in the know expects this race to be decided tomorrow night. It’s just too close, and this new poll reconfirms that.

Burner is leading among early absentee voters (by 8 points, according to this new poll), but it’s highly unlikely that she’ll do as well among poll voters tomorrow. Which means a probable scenario as the results trickle in tomorrow evening is this: An early lead for Burner, owing to her reported lead among early abentee voters, and then a narrowing of that lead as the poll results come in, and then, by the end of the night, a too-close-to-call race that can’t be decided until the later absentees are counted.

Speaking of water-based analogies (“trickle in”), to me, being out following a candidate around in today’s downpours seemed somehow an appropriate end to an election season that has been awash (ha!) in comparisons between the mood of the country and the movement of water.

Tides, waves, tidal waves, tsunamis, ripples, currents, etc., etc. — they’ve all been used to describe the apparent surge (yet another water analogy, sorry) in voter support for Democrats. Will tomorrow’s electoral wave/tidal wave/whatever be enough to force a change of leadership in the House and Senate?

We’ll find out soon (though maybe not tomorrow-soon as far as the 8th District is concerned) but for now, here’s my favorite water-based description of the pro-Democrat opinion trends, this one from a dismissive conservative blog commenter: “Just a fart in the ocean.”

RSS icon Comments

1

i know it's not an ocean, but it smells really bad when i fart in the bathtub.

Posted by Gidge | November 6, 2006 7:41 PM
2

Go Darcy!!!! You can cream that effete hairdo!!!

Posted by Catalina Vel-DuRay | November 6, 2006 8:49 PM
3

Just as there's no confusion Dave Reichert is the effete hairdo I was refering to. Darcy Buner's hairdo is merely banal.

Posted by Catalina Vel-DuRay | November 6, 2006 8:51 PM
4

I wonder if old Sherriff is a closet case.

Posted by otla | November 6, 2006 9:08 PM
5

Interesting that Burner was up 8% with 25% of already voted respondees a week ago, and maintains that 8% with 38%. Conversely Reichert drops from +11% with 75% voters to be, to +5% with 62% left.

Posted by Daniel K | November 6, 2006 9:56 PM
6

Oh, Christ, another 6 month recount.

Posted by Gomez | November 7, 2006 7:26 AM
7

Speaking of water-based analogies (“trickle in”), to me, being out following a candidate around in today’s downpours seemed somehow an appropriate end to an election season that has been awash (ha!) in comparisons between the mood of the country and the movement of water.

Tides, waves, tidal waves, tsunamis, ripples, currents, etc., etc. — they’ve all been used to describe the apparent surge (yet another water analogy, sorry) in voter support for Democrats. Will tomorrow’s electoral wave/tidal wave/whatever be enough to force a change of leadership in the House and Senate?

Hopefully, the terrible lack of credibility establishment doesn't wash the D's entire movement down the drain.

Posted by Gomez | November 7, 2006 7:59 AM

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