I was having a cocktail at the Olympic Hotel the other night, and was quite annoyed to have to listen to some dumb, chunky dickwad drunkenly explaining to an embarassed friend why we have to "take care of things in Iraq"

After his embarrased friend finally left, he staggered over to the bar and started boring the bartender with a story about how some older relative can't take the helicopter to go golfing anymore, or something dumbass like that.

Obviously, fat boy was well connected and wealthy (he signed off on a sizable tab) and was not in the military, but at least HE is excited about the prospect of war in Iran.

Constant, best Slog post I've read in about 3 weeks. Hilarious and on point.

I finally became completely convinced we were prepping for a war against Iran yesterday. I was waiting in the dentist's office when I noticed the Time Magazine "What War With Iran Would Look Like" issue and realized that TIME, official mouthpiece of the state, was telling me outright that war was a done deal. Based on the way the faux "question" (Time cover stories usually pose a question accompanied by a picture that implies the conclusion one is intended to draw: "Are Our Children In Danger?" accompanied by a picture of a school shooter, for example) was framed, the question we are being asked to consider is not whether war with Iran is going to occur, but what it will look like when it does. The portrait of Ahmadinejad looked altered to make his eyes look beadier and closer together.

Within, the article entitled "A Date With a Dangerous Mind" makes a point of mentioning that the Iranian leader is an "incendiary" and "polarizing" figure whose "swagger" and "bluster" are "leading the world closer to war." He is a "skilled, if slippery, debater," a "natural politician, gifted in the art of spin and misdirection." He is "cocky." Also, "arrogant." Also, short (a mere 5'4"!) And he hangs out with Castro.

The following article detailed what the airstrikes and limited tactical deployment of bunker-buster nuclear weapons would look like. Don't worry, there won't be a ground invasion! Just airstrikes! What could possibly go wrong?

I was overcome with a strong sense of deja vu. It's happening again.

Carrier strike groups have been in the persian gulf more or less continuously for 20 years. Carrier groups and amphibious groups go on routine 6 month deployments that generally involve 4-5 months in the gulf on every deployment. As a single event this is completely routine.

You could still be right -- but compare the number and types of US warships outside of port today to the number that were underway in late winter/early spring 2003 (multiple carrier and amphibious groups), and then get back to us.

The approximate location of most ships, especially something obtrusive like a carrier group, is pretty easy to find with google news...

If we start a war with Iran, we'll seriously regret it. This is no third world sand lot. They have a 4 to 5 million member army including reserves, and strong ties to both Russia and China. Plus they’ve been preparing for an attack for 25 years.

How in god's name could Americans be taken in by this ridiculous war propaganda again, you ask?

Ladies and gentlemen, may I present writer Mark Ames via Alternet:

"Nothing could gall a nation of Bible-thumping, pious militarists more than this awful picture of opposing trajectories, America's pointing downward…
But what the hell am I saying, expecting Americans to have learned a lesson from their recent disasters and failures?
There's an antidote to learning lessons from harsh reality. Complete mass insane stupidity, combined with utter shamelessness.
In a poll released earlier this week, Bush's approval rating has soared -- soared! -- to 44%, the highest in ages. Even more shocking, Americans no longer believe that the war in Iraq was a mistake... when I read that poll this past Monday, I exploded in laughter. The absolute, pure gullibility of the American public is without limit, bottomless... Everyone was asking last week "Why do they hate us?" all over again.
The Republicans have thoroughly raped America... but the suckers are squealing for more! The denial has reached new, hemorrhage-fever dimensions... even in the world of fiction, you couldn't possibly invent a nation of such grotesque, abject suckers if you tried. For one thing, it wouldn't sell. No one would buy it. If the American public were characters in a novel, no editor would let them pass without massive reworking: "Your American public (is) simply not believable."

If there's gonna be a betting pool I call dibs on October 22nd. By the dark of the moon...

Invade with what? The entire army, including reserves, is in a total state of collapse.

Remember when Bush was bitching how much Clinton ruined the readiness of the military? Thanks to the Iraq war, it really has happened. We couldn't invade Panama right now, let alone Iran.

Even airstrikes are a dubious possibility. What country is going to allow this right now? Where will the bombers launch from, Diego Garcia? Can't land a B52 on a carrier.

Submarine launched nuclear weapons? ICBMs into Central asia? Beyond insane. If that is the option the Bushies have decided upon, we're going to a very dark and lonely place. Hell, it is reasonable to question how much of the US nuclear arsenal is actually ready for launch right now.

I have to agree with J @4.

A US carrier NEVER leaves port without an entire battle group escort. A carrier is considered far too vulnerable and far too critical (not to mention expensive) to ever go anywhere alone. This has been standard US Navy tactics since WW II. And it is entirely routine to rotate these carrier battle groups every six months during peace time.

So simply pointing out that a carrier battle group is heading to the Persian Gulf is not, in and of itself, cause for alarm. 2 or 3 carriers, yes. A single carrier group? No.

I'm not saying it couldn't be true. I wouldn't put it past Bush to think that attacking Iran is a good idea. I'm just saying that pointing out a carrier battle group heading for the Persian Gulf is pretty weak evidence. And with North Korea claiming it will conduct a nuclear test any day now, they clearly pose a greater threat.

Yeah, but if the other carrier group already there doesn't leave, then it is a sign.