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Thursday, October 19, 2006

Latest Poll: WA-08 Still a Dead Heat

posted by on October 19 at 16:50 PM

The results of the latest Survey USA tracking poll are in, and Reichert is still at 50 percent while Burner is at 47 percent (with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percent). Survey USA’s analysis:

No Movement in Fierce Fight for WA8 House Seat: In an election for the U.S. House of Representatives today, 10/18/06, in Washington’s 8th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Dave Reichert and Democratic challenger Darcy Burner remain nose-to-nose, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. 20 days to the 11/7/06 general election, Reichert gets 50% of the vote, the same as in an identical SurveyUSA KING-TV poll released on 9/27/06. Burner gets 47%, down a statistically insignificant 1 point. Most Demographic groups are stable. But two are worth noting: Among Independent voters, Reichert had led by 5, now trails by 10, a 15-point swing. Among affluent voters, Burner had led by 4, now trails by 5, a 9-point swing.

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So if Reichert's down in those demographics, and the others are stable, how to explain the 1-point drop for Burner?

Also, any good tips for volunteering/GOTV for Burner in the next 3 weeks?

Posted by david | October 19, 2006 5:10 PM

David, if you want to volunteer to help with Darcy's campaign, call either the Auburn or the Bellevue office (the phone numbers are at her campaign website, and ask what you can do to help. I guarantee they'll put you to work, and be grateful for anything you can do.

Posted by Geni | October 19, 2006 5:19 PM

This is pretty remarkable, and easy to explain if you think about the negative ads each campaign has been running.

The Dems have been associating Reichert with Bush (hence the loss among independents), while the GOP has been accusing Burner of wanting to raise taxes (so she's lost wealthy voters).

QED, negative ads work. More here:

Posted by Frank Bruno | October 19, 2006 6:34 PM

The affluent voter thing doesn't surprise me much. The rich bitches know where their bread is buttered.

Posted by Gitai | October 19, 2006 8:00 PM

Bruner needs Medina buzz - but the very rich only vote once.

Up for grabs, but Reichert has the incumbent edge - still could be upset in the works.

R;s still bleeding over Irag and closet cases hitting on pages - that story sure has legs. Heard another piece on radio today - day after day - love it .....

Posted by Jack | October 19, 2006 9:19 PM

Neck and neck is not where I want to see a Democrat these days.

Posted by Gomez | October 20, 2006 9:26 AM

Also, GOTV campaigns are annoying. Most people agree, and at best, most people ignore them. Often, though, it turns them off to the candidate in question.

Posted by Gomez | October 20, 2006 9:28 AM

I think Darcy is going to lose this one. I hope she doesn't, but once a candiate passes the magical 50% mark, it's pretty much a lock unless a congressman molests a teenage pa... oh, wait.

Posted by John | October 20, 2006 9:53 AM

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