Politics What Goes Around Comes Around
One thing about the revised (ballooning) cost estimates for the viaduct replacement is this: They were accompanied by ballooning cost estimates for replacing 520. Previously, for example, the two main 520 replacement options ranged from $2.3 billion-$2.8 billion and $2.7 billion-$3.1 billion. Now, those same options are coming in much higher at $2.8 billion-$4.9 billion and $3.3 billion-$5.3 billion respectively.
There’s a couple of reasons to take note of sharply increased 520 costs.
First, increased 520 costs jack up the price tag for next year’s RTID vote. The RTID vote is coupled with next year’s light rail expansion vote. (If RTID fails, light rail fails…even if voters vote yea on light rail.) Soooo, in order to shave costs off the package, the RTID (roads) advocates might force light rail advocates to cut light rail costs—which could jeopardize transit expansion.
Second, increased 520 costs affect the viaduct debate. Replacing 520 is a must, and so finding money for 520 will take priority over viaduct spending. This means the cheaper solutions to dealing with the viaduct will start to gain momentum. These include the no rebuild (transit/streets) option being pushed by transit greens and the retrofit option being pushed by council president Nick Licata. These cheaper viaduct options, particularly the no-rebuild option (which is similar to a contingency no-rebuild option already developed by SDOT to accommodate the years when the tunnel was supposed to be under construction), will start to look much better to the city council and to the state. Indeed, it’s hard not to believe that the daunting new viaduct numbers from the state were a targeted, well-timed political hit from Gregoire, who wants to nudge Nickels and Seattle toward choosing the cheapest option. After all, signing off on big dollar requests from Seattle hurts Gregoire and the Democrats statewide.
The city council will take up the bad numbers from the state at a special council meeting tomorrow morning where they’re likely to support Nickels’s call to pull the viaduct question back from a previously promised public vote…but aren’t likely to do much else.
All I can say is my projected costs end up being correct and the lowball fake numbers pushed by city council and the mayor were wrong.
Now, can we just admit the tunnel is a no-go and if city council shoves a $3 billion (eventually $8 billion when all is said and done) tax down Seattle's throats, there's going to be a lot of unelected council members and a mayor?