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Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Some Analysis

Posted by on September 19 at 22:35 PM

So while we’re waiting for those results, here are a few fairly unsubstantiated predictions about what tonight’s results mean:

Currently, Jim Street is trailing Jamie Pedersen 22 to 29 percent. However, Street could pull up in the next batch of votes, if late absentee voters skew in his direction. Absentee voters tend to be older, favoring a known quantity like Street (who targeted older voters in his mailing campaign.) Moreover, more voters supposedly held onto their ballots longer this year, meaning the effect of late absentees could be greater than usual. And turnout is expected to be low (around 30 percent), again favoring Street, because poll voters are likely to favor Pedersen. In any case, the next batch of votes will be a good indicator of which direction the next round will go, so we’ll have a better sense of the frontrunner when the new numbers arrive.


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Jamie Pedersen D 1150 27.95%

Bill Sherman D 610 14.82%

Jim Street D 895 21.75%

Lynne Dodson D 467 11.35%

Dick Kelley D 470 11.42%

Stephanie Pure D 521 12.66%

Jamie holding strong - by the way - the earliest absentees are the oldest voters.

They went for Jamie. Stable older voters plus solidarity homos - sounds like a base that will hang strong.

Congrats Jamie.

Nice campaign, taught the old straight boy network and their hangers-0n-ers a thing or two.

Somebody needs to close a tab.

I think Street would be a wonderful rep, as good or better than Pederson, but this post sounds a lot like hoping and wishing more than any actual evidence.

Some of the attitudes against Pederson are so baffling (he doesn't go to a gay bar! he's not really gay!) I can't help sympathizing with him.

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