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Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Re: Rumors of a Poll in WA-08

Posted by on September 26 at 10:50 AM

It’s true. Here’s the memo on the poll, which was conducted by the Portland firm Grove Insight and found Dave Reichert beating Darcy Burner by only one percentage point (with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points).

That means that Burner and Reichert are now in a statistical dead heat, at least according to this poll.

I don’t know much about Grove or its reputation, but a quick Google search shows it to be mostly affiliated with liberal candidates. Perhaps that will make this survey dismissable as a “partisan poll.” But its findings are in line with those of another poll released earlier this month, which found Burner leading Reichert 49 percent to 46 percent (also within that poll’s margin of error).

Bottom line: Two separate polls in one month have shown newbie Burner and incumbent Reichert in a statistical dead heat, a pretty impressive feat for a previously unknown challenger like Burner.

Some findings from the Grove poll, which was commissioned by the Burner-endorsing group EMILY’s List:

* “Burner and Reichert are running neck and neck. Burner obtains support from 43% of voters, while Reichert garners 44% of the vote. Each candidate receives ‘strong support’ from about one-third of voters. Few voters 13% are still undecided. With the right resources, Burner could successfully beat the incumbent.”

* “While it is the case that [Reichert] is quite well known in his district and holds a significant advantage over Burner in name identification (46% Burner, 81% Reichert), he has not made many friends. More than four out of five voters can identify him, but his ratings are unimpressive (46% favorable, 35% unfavorable).”

* “In contrast, Darcy Burner, while less well-known, receives very respectable ratings from Eighth District voters (33% favorable, 13% unfavorable). She counts high propensity voters among her biggest fans. Her detractors are mostly Republicans, but even those gather in small numbers.”

* “Burner has significant opportunities to grow in her name identification among younger voters (especially women), parents, the less well-educated, and residents of Pierce County and Legislative Districts 25/33/45 and 41. Introducing her to these voters with a positive message will help boost her performance. Indeed, almost 70% of Congressional undecideds know little about her.”

* “In a generic congressional match-up, District 8 voters favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate by a margin of 10 percentage points (44% Democrat, 34% Republican).”

* And Bush is wildly unpopular in the district, a good sign for Burner’s strategy of tying Reichert to the president at every opportunity: “[Bush’s] favorability ratings are poor (36% favorable, 59% unfavorable) and his job approval ratings are even worse (28% positive, 71% negative).”

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From October 2004:

The Dave Ross for Congress campaign released the results of a new poll of likely voters today showing that Dave Ross, a Democrat, has a significant 10 point lead over Dave Reichert in the Eighth Congressional District race.

Ross - 47 percent
Reichert - 37 percent
Undecided - 14 percent

Yeah, but since some local WA districts are tossing money Darcy's way ...

I'd be surprised if Reichert loses. I'm voting for Burner, but only because I truly hate Bush and the GOP Congress that has so horribly mismanaged our national and foreign policies. Were there Dem's in control of Congress or the Prez, I might've voted for Reichert. I think most people like the job he did as Sheriff, and he'll get re-upped. Of course, I predicted Bush losing both times. (well, I was right at least once on that, I guess).

I agree with him (Him.) Burner's task is not to get the Eastside (425) on her side, it's to get South King County and East Pierce County (253: big hair, trucks, megachurches and all) to NOT vote for Reichert and TO vote for her. It's a tough task, and she may not be able to do it. I hope she can, though.

Reichert caught the green river murderer with his bare hands and ate his liver while he was still alive. Therefore, he is the best choice for Congress.

He's also very well hung and a Christian.

I disagree, Motown, I think Burner's task is to get people in the mushy middle to vote period.

And Reicherdt used to pal around with GRK, and had massive budget deficits ...

check out this new postcard mailer from the reichert campaign:

If the primary voting is any indication (and I understand that many abstain from uncontested races), Darcy Burner's got a bit of an edge.

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