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Monday, September 18, 2006

Re: Rumors of a Poll in the 43rd District

Posted by on September 18 at 11:40 AM

Local politics addicts (all seven of them) have been wondering two things about the rumors of a poll in the 43rd District. The poll allegedly showed Jim Street winning by a hair — or perhaps, in his case, an old school Seattle beard whisker — and was slipped to Dave Meinert. Here, again, are the alleged results:

Street 15.8%

Pedersen 15%

Kelley 7%

Sherman 5%

Dodson 4%

Pure 3%

(No word on margin of error, methodology, or when it was supposedly conducted. And note that 50 percent of respondents in the poll were apparently undecided.)

The first question people are asking: Is the poll for real? And question number two: Who conducted it?

I can’t definitively answer either question yet, but I’ve played a little process-of-elimination game and I can tell you who claims not to have conducted the poll and, perhaps more tellingly, who did not respond to my query.

The campaigns of Sherman, Dodson, Street, Kelley, and Pure all denied conducting the poll. Pedersen, however, has not replied to my question asking whether his campaign conducted the poll.

Which raises two more interesting questions
: Did Pedersen run a poll in recent weeks only to find himself in second place? And if so, what did he do to change that situation?

UPDATE: Just heard from Pedersen, who says his campaign hasn’t done any polling. So that means either Meinert is peddling misinformation or one of these six candidates is — gasp! — not telling the truth.


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this is sensationalizing something that could end up being complete BS. not knowing when/how/where/who regarding this poll makes it completely without merit.

sounds like an 'october surprise' type rumor designed to get-out-those-last-few-votes by the pedersen camp.

weasel.

Eli -

Putting this up for public consumption before you've figured out if it's legit or not is irresponsible journalism - you should know better.

Whatchyoutalkinabout, Willis?

Meinert's been pushing this poll in the comments, so it's already being publicly consumed. If the poll is real, it's the only data point we have in this race, and that would be pretty noteworthy.

But as I've now shown, none of the campaigns admit to doing the poll and Meinert still can't come up with his source.

That's more information than the public had when it was consuming Meinert's poll postings in the comments.

So people now have more information with which to evaluate Meinert's poll -- and more reasons to be skeptical about it. That's not better than the previous situation?

Sounds like a poll of voters:

a. during daytime hours when all but retired people tend to work;
b. who have land lines (so forget younger voters);
c. who are "dedicated at poll voters in primaries" (code for older voters).

I wouldn't count on it to mean anything.

If you look at Pedersen's public disclosure forms, he shows an expense on his last C4, Schedule A for a voter survey - www.pdc.wa.gov, Search for and View Reports, Type "Pedersen" in the Filer Name. Click Send Query. Pull the 9/12 Schedule A Form. 9/11 expense to Precision Communications for "voter telephone polling" for $3403.90.

Took me two seconds.

See Eli - what Jason B just did is called "reporting". You should learn how to do it.

And there's a big differnce between Meinert posting something in the comments, and a "reporter" putting it on the front page of SLOG. By putting it on the front page you gave the story legs and credence (even if you put in a bunch of caveats, etc).

I highly doubt that third significant figure is warranted.

Guess what Will? THAT'S who votes in the primary election.

It's fairly obvious that Pedersen did the survey. Why would he lie about it though? What good does that do, especially after he reported it? Either that was a completely moronic f'up OR he doesn't want to be pressed on the real results of the poll. Seems to me he's feeding bogus numbers to back up a last minute Get Out the Vote push. Sherman in 4th place with all that doorbelling? BEHIND DICK KELLEY? No way. Vote Sherman!

Watcher - no, that's who USED to vote in primaries, before everyone got absentee ballots.

Wait until certification.

What a fucking liar! Vote anyone but Pedersen.

Will - Still true.

Look, who cares about this? I doubt it's a lie, what's the point? probably more a fuck up somewhere. Not like he killed someone. Not my candidate anyway, but hardly worth the time being spent on it.

the point is:
jamie was asked about something (which saying 'yes, i did a poll' would have been a fine answer) and instead of telling the truth, he lied.

he's showing his stripes.

I'm Jamie Pedersen's campaign manager. We heard someone conducted a poll, but it was not our campaign. People might be confused because Jamie and others have contacted many voters at the door and on the phone and discussed, among other things, who they might vote for. That's a standard effort to identify our
supporters. The PDC filing some are referring to as the source of our poll is actually part of our voter ID program. It is not a poll.

Then you might want to change your forms to say "Voter ID Work" instead of "Voter telephone POLLING" - which is what that form above says. Who's confused? Not us.

Something still smells fishy in Pedersenland.

Willis:


Why should Eli make any effort to dig up a story when he can just drop a rumor on the SLOG, and let the readers dig up the details for him in the comments?


Have a look at The Stranger's masthead some time.


13 Editors
11 Columnists
4 Staff Writers
No reporters
No researchers, no fact checkers


I realize the masthead of a city daily will list only the editors and senior management, leaving off the reporters, but what with The Stranger's masthead listing their receptionist, I don't think they've left anyone out. The reason nobody at The Stranger does any reporting is because it's simply not their job.


The Stranger is in the business of entertainment, not news-gathering. Notions of journalistic responsibility do not apply.

Cammie -

Now that's a sign of a true grassroots campaign right there! Paid phones are the last refuge of those that don't have volunteers. Glad to know that Jamie was able to spend all the moolah he got from his law partners.

Cammie Croft:


Since it's fallen to the rabble here to do any actual reporting, I have some follow-up questions:


First, and most importantly, what is the goal of your "voter ID program", and what role did Precision Communications play in it? In particular, did Precision Communications ask a number of voters who they were likely to vote for, and tabulate the results?


In other words, has your campaign and/or Precision Communications conducted any informal, unscientific poll-like activity resulting in statistics which Dave Meinart might have gotten his hands on, and mistaken for a poll?

Willis in #18--
I suppose that your definition of paid phones doesn't take into account buying the lists for the volunteers to call. WAKE UP!
So much drivel here lately.

Duh @18,

If Jamie spent $3400 on LISTS then he's not smart enough to run for dog-catcher, much less state house. If you're spending that much, you're spending it on paying people to make calls on your behalf.

Actually, in the 43rd, a Labels and Lists telephone cross-match is usually at best 50 percent accurate, due to how often people move in the district. It also normally misses those with cell phones, and thus is age-biased.

Anyone else notice all the flyers on telephone polls recently?

Yeah - I was wondering if Dick planned to take those down after the election - they're pretty much littering the district right now. I'm pretty sure that they don't meet the requirements of Seattle's poster laws....

Jamie by 250 ---- all you sad sack sharp tongued devils can go to the no winner parties and get very drunk.

He did a good campaign, played the gay card well, and will win.

Street number two, Pure at the end. Who cares in between.

I think Pure will do better than expected. She may not have the years of wonky experience (yawn), but she is far more interesting and has the biggest potential to grow.

Last week I received a phone call from someone identifying themselves as " Strategy Group". They asked me who I was going to vote for in the 43rd, I said undecided. They said "Does knowing that endorse Jamie Pedersen make you more or less likely to vote for Jamie Pedersen? I said I'm undecided and asked whether this was a push poll, and if so, for which candidate. They hung up.

Oh, the flyers I saw were for Stephanie Pure - not sure why Dick Kelley should take them down ...

On a fun note, I got called by two GOP groups this weekend - very funny. Trying to push poll me into voting for certain judges.

No doubt Pure has the biggest potential for growth, just as an empty glass has far more potential for growth than a full glass. So Pure being in-experienced is a reason to vote for her? You Pure fans know how to post on blogs, too bad you can offer no legitimate reasons to vote for your candidate.

I find it curious that some people keep referring to Pure's inexperience.
I can't help but think that since she has been a community activist who has taken on city hall and won (i.e. TDO etc...) and legislative aide, which by the way is what Ed Murray was, and Dave Upthegrove still is, that people who refer to her "inexperience" are probably both ageist and sexist.
She works with constituents, she handles complex issues, builds consensus and does almost everything in her current job that a legislator does--she does the work.

whoa. Wait a minute Lisa43. Pure took on City Hall and won on the TDO? I keep reading this and it's time to be accurate. The TDO fight started in the mid 80's when it was passed. It really got momentum in the early to mid 90's. By the late 90's many people had lobbied City Council to get rid of the TDO. Finally, Licata and Conlin formed the Music and Youth Task Force, and the wheels were in motion to take the TDO apart by at least ammending it. Pure wasn't involved until then. Even then, she was a pretty quiet member of a large task force. A few on the task force helped write the AADO, mostly Dave Whitson and Greg Bennick. Then the AADO passed council and was vetoed by Mayor Schell. JAMPAC sued the City, lost. JAMPAC then mobilized the music community to get behind Nickels in order to defeat Sidran. Nickels won. Nickels then tried to pass a revised version of the AADO that was worse than the TDO. Many of us fought to defeat that, and finally, at a meeting of Nickels' senior staff, Krist Novecelic and I helped convince Nickels to rewrite the ordinance. This was after a lot of lobbying went on by a lot of people, and Licata, Conlin, Wills, Nicastro and Drago took the position that they would vote against the revision Nickels was proposing. At the time, Steinbreuck, who Pure worked for, wouldn't take a public position. This was a looong process, with many people involved, and Pure played a only a very minor role. Kate Becker, Angel Combs, Krist Noveselic, The Teen Dance Ordinance Resistance, Lori Lefavor, Newell Aldrich, Pearl Jam, Death Cab, The Stranger, etc, etc, etc all played huge roles, and I am tired of hearing one person getting so much credit for this 15 year long battle that involved many. I guess if Pure playing a small role among many people on the Music and Youth Task Force (who's legislation was vetoed) late in the battle counts as HER taking on city hall and winning, well, I guess she's a political giant. But c'mon, let's not rewrite history. By the way, neither Pure nor I are founders of Vera as has been written. We were both, however, original board members. Vera was founded by James Keblas, Shannon Stewart and Kate Becker. No one else can or should claim that. Doesn't mean you shouldn't vote for Pure, but the distortions need to stop.

The post was not to discount the contributions of many others involved in TDO and the music scene here in seattle.

The point of the post was to say that to call a known community activist and legislative aide who currently does the job that former (and current) State Reps. do is bullshit.

correction

The post was not to discount the contributions of many others involved in TDO and the music scene here in seattle.

The point of the post was to say that to call a known community activist and legislative aide who currently does the job that former (and current) State Reps. do 'inexperienced' is bullshit.

I don't think the issue is that Stephanie is 'inexperienced'. It's that all the other candidates have much more, and more relevant, experience then she does. It's not a slam on her. This race is packed with some great candidates, and the other 5 definitely are heavy hitters compared to Pure.

Well - it seems Ms. Pure, aided by revisionist writing at the Strangeness, have crated a rather take all the credit political campaign.

Oh well, lies are part of politics, arn't they Stephie. As you apprach 35, SP, quit the striving youth thing. Wearing thin.

By the way, Jamie is a self made success as a downtown attorney - he did work at Mac Donalds to get thru Yale - He did chair a well respected legal group, Lambda - and just a few years older than teenager forever Pure, seems to have accomplished ten times more good stuff.

Pedersen by 280, go go boys at the private victory parties.

Well, if Pedersen wins, it's certainly not due to his (deluge of) mail. No one I've spoken to has been impressed by that cookie-cutter crap he's been cramming mailboxes full of. Whoever he's using lacks an imagination.

Did Pure take on City Hall and work to get the TDO repealed? Yep. Was she the only one? Nope. Do people running for office downplay what they've done? Nope.

Let's apply the same standard here to Pedersen: he says he "saved" PacMed. What actually happened? Then Mayor Paul Schell cut a deal with his property developer buddies to make the property developers rich, and give enough money to PacMed to keep it afloat. Maybe Petersen filled out some paperwork as part of his day job, but please, don't kid yourself--he didn't save PacMed. If he wants to claim that, he needs to own up to shoveling all that public money to developers in what was a *terrible* deal for the public.

good point B; the saving of PacMed is not something I would really claim to have been a part of unless you're sending a wink, wink, nudge, nudge to the big developer money.

Despite being gay, Pedersen is without a doubt the straightest of the six and it's unfathomable that he could end up representing the most progressive district in the state...we deserve much better.

Pedersen is endorsed by the Rental Housing Association, aka Slumlords R Us.

In fact, he is the only candidate from any district in Seattle that they endorsed--Democrat or Republican.

A good fit for the 43rd, no?

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