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Monday, September 11, 2006

Latest Poll: McGavick Down 17 Points. Will Mr. Civility Go Negative Now?

Posted by on September 11 at 9:05 AM

I originally posted this last night, but I wanted to get it into the Monday mix.

According to this Washington Post article, the GOP has decided to play dirty.

From today’s Washington Post story:

Republicans are planning to spend the vast majority of their sizable financial war chest in the final 60 days of the campaign attacking Democratic House and Senate candidates over personal issues and local controversies, GOP officials said. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which this year assigned six operatives to comb through tax, court and other records looking for damaging information on Democratic candidates, plans to spend more than 90 percent of its $50 million-plus advertising budget on what officials described as negative ads.

With polls showing the Republicans’ House and Senate majorities in jeopardy, party strategists said they have concluded their best chance to prevent big Democratic gains is a television and direct-mail blitz in the next eight weeks aimed at raising enough questions about Democratic candidates that voters decide they are unacceptable alternatives.

“When you run in an adverse political environment, you try to localize and personalize the race as much as you can,” said Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla.

This presents a dilemma for GOP candidate Mike McGavick, who has pledged to run an issues-oriented, civil campaign. In fact, instead of campaigning on the issues, McGavick’s been campaigning on campaigning civilly.

I wonder if he’ll be tempted to rethink his strategy. The latest poll—a Rasmussen Poll—has McGavick down 17 points. The previous Rasmussen poll, one that the McGavick campaign touted, had McGavick trailing by just 5 points.

Conservative bloggers at Free Republic got an early glimpse at the poll.

Cantwell leads by 17 in Washington over McGavick (Rasmussen) Dave Leip’s Atlas of Presidential Elections ^ | 6 September 2006 | Dave Leip

Posted on 09/08/2006 12:15:26 PM PDT by okstate

This is a Rasmussen poll that’s still on the premium portion of Rasmussen’s site but got leaked to Leip’s site.

Cantwell 52%
McGavick 35%
Undecided 13%

MOE +/- 4.5 percent from a sample of 500 likely voters.

Should be released publicly in a couple of days. The teaser on Rasmussen’s site reads
“Washington Senate The fallout from Mike McGavick’s (R) recent drunk driving confession has had an impact in our latest poll. See how McGavick now fares against incumbent Maria Cantwell (D).”

Last week SurveyUSA released two different polls from Washington, both of which showed 17 point leads for Cantwell.

Previously Rasmussen found a six point lead for Cantwell, on August 15th.

Taking all this into account, I think it’s clear that we should now focus more on New Jersey, Maryland, Michigan, and even Minnesota over Washington.

However, Cantwell is now potentially in trouble over connections to lobbyists and their money. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Meanwhile, Charlie Cook, of the Cook Report—who I cited last Spring to substantiate a McGavick surge —now says McGavick’s stock has gone South.

This morning on C-Span Cook said the Cantwell/McGavick race was “one where the Republicans looked like they had a decent shot of taking out a seat” but that “McGavick has hit a bad spell and it’s not terribly competitive anymore.”

The $28 million question: Will McGavick abandon his civility rap to get competitive?

CommentsRSS icon

They can't seriously think they will take seats in Maryland can they?

I really, really, really hope Cantwell continues to have a very wide berth in this race. I mean, I hate her, but I can't stand the idea of the GOP retaining their majority, so I want her to win. I just don't wanna have to vote for her.

She actually kind of seemed rather lieable and sensible in that port security ad - maybe that kind of thing is working?

I guess I stand corrected. People aren't buying the Jolly Red Giant after all.

Also, the only seats the R's are taking in Maryland are at IHOP.

According to the LA Times, McGavick's civility theme is blazing trails--all the way to 2008. Whatever happens in this race, McGavick has set the model for many campaigns to come.

Wait wait wait.

McGavick RAPS?


I don't know how reliable road signs are, but we drove around between here and Bellingham this weekend and saw tons of huge McGavick signs, zero Cantwell. Lots of Groen signs too, big ones.

Seeing the job situation outside of King and Snohomish (we're way up, everyone else in the state is in the toilet) I think Cantwell's victory is going to have be centered on the "home counties" even more than usual.

P.S.: this is the real Fnarf, not the poo-obsessed Paul imposter.

Yard signs don't vote.

But right-wingers in the exurbs do. Actually, it's Groen I'm more worried about at this point. He's bad, bad news.

Don't do the crime, if you can't wake up and resign from your run for the seat.

So, now we know Alaskan Mike McGavick's a proven repeated Liar, a DUI drunk, and has accepted Alaskan Oil Money that turned out to be stolen.

Any word on his other criminal actions?

Big signs in massive amounts are how Republicans "compensate" ... I live in a swing area and our local Republicans have always done the yard sign overcompensation thing: I don't believe it translates very well into votes because we Democrats still beat 'em.

I hope so, D, but it's quite possible that Cantwell and Alexander, like Gregoire, will lose in every county in the state except King and one of Pierce and Snohomish, but still win overall. That makes for a nailbiter which I don't have the nerves for anymore.

Well, all signs show that if anyone can actually get Cheney to take their bet in writing, it's easy money.

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