Politics Eye On the AbStats in the 43rd
A person who has been a close observer of local elections over many years sent me an email on Saturday to call my attention to this link. The subject line of the email: “This is really odd.”
The link is to King County’s “AbStats” page, wich sounds very exciting until one learns that “AbStats” stands for Absentee Ballot Return Statistics. (Still somewhat exciting, sure, but quite a bit less so than what one might at first imagine.)
What, I wondered, was so odd this year about the absentee ballot return statistics? My tipster explained:
The number of absentee ballots turned in for the 43rd at this point is unusually low. Take it from someone who has watched this stuff across the state for years, this is an unusual development. This means people have not made up their minds.
So far, only about 18 percent of the absentee ballots have been mailed back in Seattle’s 43rd District — a significantly lower percentage than the returns so far in other districts that don’t have a hot state house race like the one in 43rd between Jamie Pedersen, Jim Street, Bill Sherman, Lynne Dodson, Dick Kelley, and Stephanie Pure.
My tipster had been convinced that the well-funded and Ed-Murray-endorsed Jamie Pedersen would win the race by four or five points. Now, my tipster is not so sure.
Pedersen has the most passionate voters and they most likely have turned their ballots in first. This is also not a lazy district, it is an educated methodical group of voters, who don’t just hold on to their ballots. Maybe it is the supreme court races [that are holding up the absentee ballots]. But if I were running and had all the media exposure and money Jamie had, I would be very nervous.
My tipster’s prediction for tomorrow night’s returns: an early lead for Pedersen that will shrink throughout the evening. (The question is by how much, and whether Pedersen’s lead will then turn into a close second.) But the tipster says to keep an eye on those AbStats. If they’re still low in the 43rd on Tuesday, the tipster says, “all bets are off.”
When people figured out J. Pedersen was one of the outside lawyers for Seattle Monorail that set up the "intergenerational borrowing" financing plan, a bit of the blush came off that rose.