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Monday, August 14, 2006

A Tale of Two Studies

Posted by on August 14 at 6:41 AM

On Monday, August 14, a consultant hired by the city council to study the “surface” alternative for replacing the Alaskan Way Viaduct is expected to release a report finding that, just as the Washington State Department of Transportation has claimed all along, the “surface” option will result in nearly day-long gridlock along the Alaskan Way corridor. That consultant, DKS Associates, has already confirmed that it would assume, as WSDOT had, that every single one of the 100,000 cars currently traveling in the viaduct corridor would stay there, prejudicing the study in favor of WSDOT’s highway-centric approach to transportation planning. Opponents of WSDOT’s approach have been saying for years that replacing the viaduct’s current car capacity with transit, demand management, and improvements to existing surface streets would allow WSDOT to tear down the viaduct and replace it with a surface boulevard with little impact to downtown traffic levels.

The city’s consultants didn’t bother to examine such a strategy. Surprisingly, however, WSDOT did. The second report, a $1 million study commissioned by WSDOT in 2002 to determine how to reduce traffic impacts during construction, will be released later this year. (The city paid just $40,000 for its study.) A preliminary update from February 2005, obtained through a records request by Cary Moon of the People’s Waterfront Coalition, a group that advocates for the surface/transit option for replacing the viaduct, shows that a combination of transit improvements, changes in parking and street-use patterns, enhanced signal controls and other incentives will likely be more than adequate to reroute cars, freight and transit commuters through the downtown street grid while Alaskan Way is fully or partially closed for construction, a closure that’s expected to last at least four years. According to the report, the package of proposals “is intended to provide the tools necessary for the transportation system to respond to changing conditions… to provide viable alternatives to the automobile… [and] maintain the movement of people and goods in the corridor even during the most disruptive construction stages.”

Although the draft report itself remains confidential, the 2005/2006 update outlines many of the proposals consultant Parsons Brinkerhoff planned to study in an effort to lessen construction impacts. Most of them will sound familiar to anyone who has followed the debate between tunnel proponents and backers of the surface/transit option: convert long-term parking to short-term parking (to discourage commuters from driving in and parking all day); improve traffic signal systems; add bus hours during construction; expand water taxi service; divert traffic onto alternate routes; reduce on-street parking; close Third Ave. to personal cars permanently; and encourage different work hours and telecommuting, among a long list of other strategies. Most, if not all, of these proposals were outlined by the PWC three years ago, and all have proven effective in reducing congestion in cities (like San Francisco and Portland) that have torn down freeways and implemented alternatives.

So if the state ultimately concludes that it could provide mobility to freight, commuters and other traffic during a four-year viaduct shutdown, logically, it should also conclude that it could provide those users mobility in the long term too. Linking WSDOT’s solutions for construction closure with the construction of a new four-lane surface boulevard would enable people to get around without a massive six-lane tunnel that will suck up billions of tax dollars for decades to come and perpetuate Seattle’s auto dependence. It’s a good idea. Too bad Greg Nickels won’t examine it.

(This item was originally posted on Sunday, August 13 at 12:00 pm)


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Why close down Third Avenue to traffic when the bus tunnel will be finished in 2008?

Hmmm? San Francisco did it? Are you sure? If she did it, I can do it! I'm just as good as she is!!!

Oh hell. Who am I kidding? I'll never be as pretty and cool as San Francisco. I'm just a loser. Just like Tacoma. What did Tacoma do? I'll just do the same.

(Sigh...)

"...divert traffic onto alternate routes..."

I love the blithe and casual way such idea are thrown out. It would be nice to hear someone explain exactly what "alternate routes" would be happy to take more traffic. I question whether they exist.

This whole issue of the Viaduct and the Tunnel is so ideologically driven and so filled with exaggeration and spin that it reminds me of the run-up to the Iraq war.

Btw, consider the source of your information, WSDOT — the people who want tear down the Viaduct to build a Tunnel. Of course they are going to say there's no problem because if they admit that there is a troublesome problem then that effectively kills their Tunnel.

That's weird logic. How would admitting that traffic will be bad during construction kill the tunnel? If WSDOT can't figure out what to do with the traffic during the four-year construction, then what's the alternative? To wait until the viaduct falls down on its own?

The People's Waterfront Coalition isn't suggesting that we replace the viaduct with nothing. They're suggesting we replace it with a four-lane surface boulevard that will take some of the viaduct's current traffic. The rest would have to be diverted onto other streets or reduced with increases to transit. It's worth considering.

"If WSDOT can't figure out what to do with the traffic during the four-year construction, then what's the alternative?"

Uh...how about repairing the Viaduct? "The Retrofit." Which would keep traffic flowing. Is that too exotic an idea? Too daring? Or too mundane?

Btw, I have no problem considering the Surface Option. But I would like to hear more than vagueries such as "...divert traffic onto alternate routes..."

Paul Allen's Vulcan Corporation, which has a history of screwing taxpayers in both Seattle and Portland*, is the major donor to the pro-tunnel group. What does he stand to gain from the tunnel project? I mean other than the lid over Aurora Avenue freebie that he'll get out of the deal no matter what option is chosen. (Allen, as someone who lives outside Seattle, won't be paying the city any higher property taxes on his own mansion.)


*In Portland, Allen formed a limited liability company that signed a long-term contract to occupy the Rose Garden arena. After his incompetent ownership of the NBA Portland Trailblazers lost $100 million a year, he had his limited liability company declare bankruptcy--the same thing he'll likely do after weaseling half a billion in cash and other subsidies from Seattle taxpayers for his properties in South Lake Union.

I'm starting to see mention in the media of a problem I brought up months ago -- the 100% certainty that digging a tunnel will uncover significant Indian relics. The area under the viaduct is EXACTLY where the Duwamish camp was, and there's no way there's not an archeological heaven there. I'd put the likelihood of finding burial grounds at 75% or higher as well. If this happens, construction will STOP and not be restarted.

"Alternate routes" = north-south surface streets east of the waterfront, such as 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th, which are not being used at anything near capacity, according to SDOT's own analysis. The available capacity increases as you go away from the waterfront.

Milwaukee recently tore down a waterfront highway. Have you seen their waterfront museum? Portland was the first to tear down a waterfront highway in the 1970's. Nickels is lost in having that cake and eating it. He don't need no more fucking cake!

Yes Erica, this was SOOOOO important you HAD to repost it. I smell Pulitzer!! *snore*

4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th are supposed to make up for not having a viaduct?

Let's cut to the chase, Erica. You don't have to drive through downtown to get somewhere else, so you don't care about anyone who does. Sooner or later you will have to decide if you are a reporter or just another shill for idiots.

I'm not really sure that the leap from "adequate" short term re-routing options to "long term" mobility is as straightforward and logical a leap as you'd hope.

What sort of timescale do you assume? And do we really want heavy freight rolling through downtown forever? I don't know what the answer to the viaduct replacement question is, but I often worry that pro-"boulevard" arguments are missing something in the way of complexity.

I find it hard to believe that the streets of downtown can absorb -- and without destroying downtown's already fragile livability, to boot -- an additional 100 thousand cars per day. Does anyone think all this diverted traffic (both short-run or long-run) is going to make Belltown a nice place?

There is a shell game here: you make the waterfront nicer (arguably) but you decrease the quality of the rest of the CBD by rerouting the traffic through it. I don't see the overall social benefit.

•••

What also makes no sense to me as a matter of civic priorities is to spend $1.5-$1.6 BILLION on improving the waterfront. I have no problem with spending that kind of money (or more) improving Seattle overall but to spend it on ONE neighborhood is a bad idea.

It is a tribute to the lack of commonsense at City Hall that the Surface Option couild even be seriously considered.

One other point. I have been informed by good authority that one of the "Alternate Routing Strategies" envisioned by the WSDOT's consultant is:

"3.2.1.2
Redirect I-5 Regional Through-Trips to I-405 using Variable Message Signs"

I believe that anyone who has driven I-405 even a little bit will be surprised that anyone thinks it has appreciable excess capacity. If this sort of "strategy" is typical of how we would handle having no Viaduct -- either long-term through the Surface Option or during the construction period -- then we are in for big trouble should we tear down the Viaduct for any reason.

8th Avenue. Uh-huh. Have you ever SEEN so much as a map of Seattle? 8th can only "absorb capacity" off of the viaduct if your base assumption is that the cars on the viaduct aren't going anywhere, but are just tooling around for no reason.

The continued use of the San Francisco Embarcadero model is just plain intellectually dishonest. It is neither comparable or desireable of emulation.

It would be nice if the people authoring these "studies" didn't have such obvious axes to grind, and instead had some coherent ideas about what a vibrant waterfront actually looks like. Both the Cary Moon plan and the tunnel option result in embarrassing dead zones that will kill downtown and crush the entire region.

Three things wrong with the study:

1. They don't study the more common Surface Plus Transit option that Sierra Club and other people have proposed, which literally includes a doubling of surface transit (bus, double-lane streetcar) within the Downtown corridor.

2. They don't address the conversion of N-S lanes to no-parking (with only Bus, HOV, and taxis able to drive along the current outside lanes).

3. They don't address the conversion of the major arterial to a wider street with the removal of traffic lights so that you can only turn left every five (5) blocks, thus speeding up traffic flow, and those lights being bus-signalled to optimize bus speed.

But, hey, if you just want to study the non-existance of the Viaduct and invalidate the real study, go ahead.

Me, I'm pulling for a rebuilt improved elevated Viaduct with double-tracked streetcars and a doubling of local transit during the construction period, and ZERO tolls once it's built, as well as NO EXTRA TAXES on Seattle Taxpayers, cause the State's paying for the total replacement without tolls or extra taxes.

You can spend ten times the cost of the Green Line Monorail for no extra capacity in a no-downtown-exit underwater tunnel that requires massive tolls and local Seattle-only taxes for any and all costs above the Viaduct replacement, but it's going to cost a LOT.

"I find it hard to believe that the streets of downtown can absorb -- and without destroying downtown's already fragile livability, to boot -- an additional 100 thousand cars per day."

God nobody here even read the article. traffic could be rerouted, accourding to a fancy-ass study WSDOT did. Plus go look up "latent demand" I don't have the patience to explain it. The viaduct creates traffic that would go away if there were no viaduct.

Plus cars don't belong in cities. I DO commute to downtown. I take the bus. And it goes really slow cus of these millions of stupid cars in the way fo the bus. I don't wanna have to wait for gas to go to $15 a gallon for you idiots to start realizing that cars might maybe not be the best lifestyle choice.

Anyway Milwaukee San Francisco and Portland all got rid of their waterfront highways without the world collapsing in on itself.

Notable cities that don't suck and have no downtown Freeway: Vancouver, Montreal, New York City. And downtown liveability? Those three cities are all notable for having dramatically better downtown liveability than Seattle. Coincidence?

In European cities like London and Munich they don't even let cars into downtown anymore.

yeah, but Vancouver has an elevated SkyTrain that goes into an old freight tunnel to run underground.

And lots - much much more than we have - of surface bus transit, including bus only lanes that run right through their downtown, with no car parking lanes. And many of the other lanes are one-way only.

Exactly like the Surface Plus Transit option pushed by Sierra Club and other groups.

"The viaduct creates traffic that would go away if there were no viaduct.

Plus cars don't belong in cities."
--
The first sentence, for which no supporting evidence exists, is explained by the second.

Interesting, local, amateur traffic dynamicist.

http://amasci.com/amateur/traffic/traffic1.html

YMMV...

One thing that tends to get ignored in the study of other cities which removed elevated roadways and did not replace them, is that no other city in which that has been done had an elevated roadway with anywhere NEAR the volume of the AWV. Eyesores like the Embarcadero Freeway or that one in Milwaukee were carrying maybe 20,000 cars a day, not 110,000 cars a day.

Not everyone can take mass transit. The semis can't. Construction workers who need to drive to jobsites with their tools and materials can't. Sure, a lot of cars on the AWV don't fit either of those - they're just commuters - but some of them have genuine reasons for needing a personal vehicle too. While I think the demand could probably be cut by 10-20%, I think it's unrealistic to expect transit to take much more than that.

I hate the Viaduct. Always have, always will. It's an eyesore and a blight on downtown. I hate the horrid canyon of dark ugliness beneath it, I hate the weird routes to traverse it to come to the waterfront from downtown, and I am not impressed by people who think we should keep it for the view (who sightsees at 50 mph??? Take a ferry if you want a really spectacular view of the city and the bay.).

If you look at the pictures of the damage caused by the Nisqually Quake, it's really hard to justify retrofitting it. The damage was severe. Plus, we're talking about a roadway that is already 2/3 of the way through its predicted lifespan. The cost to both retrofit and resurface it, when you factor in the years of use likely to result, is not significantly less than the tunnel, or even a bridge (personally, I think a bridge, much higher than the existing structure and with far fewer supports, would be the best option).

But this is Seattle. So here we sit in total paralysis, because there is no one option that satisfies every constituencies' needs and demands, and we apparently have NO political leadership. Sometimes that means making decisions that are unpopular. But the best interests of the entire region over the long term - not what is currently popular - should be the determining factor.

Every one of these discussions is depressing.
It's easier to move to NYC than convince the average seattlite that continuing to build and maintain massive superhighways through a narrow isthmus is an obviously bad idea.

Grade seperated mass transit. Anything else is a massive waste of tax dollars.

Insist on the need for AWV, the tunnel is fine by me. Just pay for it through tolls. $5 a trip is about what it'll cost. Then we'll see exactly how needed this SOV route is...

Geni: Not true. Here are the actual traffic volumes of waterfront freeways that were torn down, according to the city of Seattle.

Milwaukee: 50,000.
San Francisco Embarcadero: 70,000
San Francisco's Central Freeway: 95,000.

"The cost to both retrofit and resurface it, when you factor in the years of use likely to result, is not significantly less than the tunnel..."

Geni, are you an engineer? Are you qualified to assess the condition of the Viaduct? Have you done your own cost analysis of a Retrofit?

Probably not. Join the club. There are very few people taking part in this discussion who have the technical qualifications to opine as you have done. I suggest that we all ought to be cautious in parroting the opinions of others as if we are positive of them.

One of the difficulties of this issue is deciding whose technical opinions to trust. For my part, one of the things I look at it who has what to gain...consider the conflicts of interest...follow the money.

I don't know, but I've built more bridges and tunnels and highways than I have fingers and toes (each type).

Or you can trust the deadenders who want us to go bankrupt building a tunnel underwater in a port city during global warming ... in an earthquake zone ... with a track record of massive cost overruns ...

Your call.

Well, I have a choice today (and every other workday). I can go home using the AWV, or I can take all of those available surface streets and/or I-5 that the PWC says have plenty of unused capacity.

Since the latter option would add close to a half hour to my 20-25 minute trip, I'll be taking the AWV.

Anyone who says 4th and 5th aren't already at capacity is either lying or on crack (and 7th and 8th - which are usually full too - don't go all the way through downtown, so you still have to jog over to other through streets).

By the way, the AWV is 8 lanes through downtown (4 each way).

Big oops - the AWV is 7 lanes through downtown (3 southbound, and 4 for most of the northbound segment).

I got totally wonky today and watched the City Council debate the merits of the continuing study. They should just push the tunnel proposal through. Unfortunately, the most expensive proposal is the one that seems to offer a compromise. People will get open space, more transit on the surface with the open space and a tunnel for those who don't mind paying a toll to use it. Implement a toll and people will decide if it's worth paying for the privelage of travelling in it. This whole debate is tired and privelaged..... I want a new tunnel, I want more open space, I want more transit. The sooner we get this over with, the better.

Whoa, so an established neighborhood with a bunch of working/lower middle class folks now gets to pay tolls to get to and from their homes, but you want a tunnel and open space - so just who is more priviliged here? (and yes, I know West Seattle and much of the rest of the city needs real transit. In case you didn't notice, though, the monorail is dead, and a street car ain't gonna cut it for a neighborhood of over 80,000 people).

Then there's that $4 billion price tag - before cost overruns (and any of the virtues of the tunnel you cite except the tunnel itself).

"...watched the City Council debate the merits of the continuing study. They should just push the tunnel proposal through."

Push it through? With what money? Unless the City puts up a LOT of money, it is not even a player much less a decider. AWV is a State highway and the Governor/Legislature will decide.

If Mr Allen wants his tunnel- he'll get his tunnel. Money talks and BS walks. Don't you all remember his Seahawks Stadium and Safeco Field intrigues?

Fnarf -

As a tunnel foe, I relish the idea that Indian relics and burial grounds would get discovered during a tunnel excavation. The one problem is that the waterfront was built on tidal flats and any Indian artifacts were likely destroyed during the Denny regrade that supplied the mixed fill dirt on which the current above-sea-level waterfront was built.

Same shit.

How can Cary Moon guarantee she can get tens of thousands of cars off the road and make her pie in the sky plan work? GUARANTEE is the key word. "More buses" or "create transit" isn't concrete and precedent and history has clearly shown that it won't work.

Sorry, Erica, but these are professional engineers that can lose their jobs if they buy into pie in the sky plans that aren't backed up by any actual, tangible logic.

"Alternate routes" = north-south surface streets east of the waterfront, such as 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th, which are not being used at anything near capacity, according to SDOT's own analysis. The available capacity increases as you go away from the waterfront.

Erica, you obviously don't ever come Downtown. These roads are bumper to bumper everyday at rush hour.

Signed,
Someone who actually commutes on foot and by bus to and from Downtown.

By I, I meant what everyone says they want. By push through, I meant the City Council should grow a fucking spine and just decide what option to pursue without a Seattle only vote. I am aware that the State will have the final say. The RTID vote in 2007 will be a chance for voters in the region to decide if they want to pay up. And if you're driving a car to work, that's a luxury. We'll probably end up with a new elevated structure anyways. Also, I was a huge supporter of the monorail, I don't even want to go there, it's over. I love this city, but it is so fucked up when it comes to transportation issues. How long should we be debating what option to pursue? So, I don't get the option I want, but something has to be done, so I'm voting yes for the RTID next year. I keep saying that.....

Of course we don't know what the RTID will include --or even if it will get to the ballot.

But I know that if the does RTID include any money for the Tunnel, I will vote against it. I suspect many out-of-Seattle folks will feel the same, or more so. The Tunnel will be the kiss-of-death for the RTID.

Well then, goodbye Sound Transit Phase II. If one goes down, they both go down. True, we don't know what the RTID will cover, that's why I think we'll end up with a new elevated structure. Seattleites will gripe and the process will continue to drag on. 520 anyone?

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