based on this breakdown, even were the Democrats to win every "toss-up" seat, they'd have to also win at least 3 "leaning Rep" while not losing a single "leaning Dem" seat.

Not a very promising prospect.

There is still a lot of work to be done!

Odd that they don't show any of the House challengers in the details for each district race.

You'll note the Ds have twice as many targets of opportunity, however.

A nationwide Democratic tide will boost a lot of marginal R seats into the toss-up category.

Bush-Kerry was technically a toss up as well.

The following statement assumes and hopes for a LOT.

A nationwide Democratic tide will boost a lot of marginal R seats into the toss-up category.

It's still summer; after Labor Day is when one really will come to know what these races portend. I find it hard to believe, even as ignorant as I am about the range of people who make up the 8th Congressional district (all I know is what I read in the papers, as Will Rogers once said, and lacking a television, it is true for me also), that Ms. Burner, smart as a whip and representative of the kind of people who make up the 21st Century "working class," can't beat Sheriff Dave. Ultimately, that race may become one of style over substance. What did Dave Reichert ever do that made him qualified for a seat in Congress? That is what Ms. Burner has to harp on. I do believe she has to start taking a more aggressive approach; but there's plenty of time for that.
As far as Senator Cantwell goes, as intelligent and worthy of being in Congress as she may be, the fact that she lacks the so-called "common touch" may doom her. Mike McGavick is over on the east side of the state, shucking and jivin' and avoiding hard questions (see Josh Feit's post on the Slog) and it seems to make no difference whatsoever. Sometimes, it seems people will believe whatever they want to believe about a politician, even when they are presented with the facts.

as many of my favorite political scientists have said, when it comes to progressive politics in a conservative climate, the facts alone will not set you free. dems all over the country, but particularly in a state like ours which is so divided politically in many ways, need to focus on messaging about values not facts and figures. i think burner could have a shot if she focuses on things that we all agree on: honesty and following through on promises, competency, taking care of what is most important to us. these are all things that the Rs, and hence reichert, have let us down on and this is where the Ds stand to gain ground.

Marcos pick of Northwest Dems to Support:
Cantwell, Tester in MT and Burner.

Tester needs the money the most. Cantwell has the money but needs the votes.

The only thing that actually matters is turnout on election day, which thankfully here is mostly mail-in absentee printed ballots they can't "fix".

Terry, the questions you ask of Dave could just as easily be asked of Darcy. Darcy's fatal folly, IMO, is to point at Dave and ask that question again and again... when she has done nothing to answer the question about herself to her prospective voters.

In a style over substance campaign, the two candidates are roughly equal in their approach, their mud sligning, their chest thumping over meaningless press releases and statistics, their elitist pandering, actions that turn off the casual voter, like campaigning and fundraising outside the district, et al... and if slinging mud instead of establishing herself continues to be Darcy's status quo, then the campaign is going to come down to 40-40 party lines, and one last determinate factor: Dave Reichert has experience, and Darcy Burner does not. Game Reichert.

Darcy's gotta do more than talk shit about Dave Reichert. And if she doesn't, game over.

That map paints a grimly RED picture. I cannot continue to drink at the pace i have for the last 6 years. My country, and my liver need a Democratic miracle.

Gomez, what on EARTH are you talking about? Have you spoken to Darcy? I've attended at least five events at which she spoke, and had opportunity to speak to her in person on several other occasions, and she barely even mentions Officer Barbrady. She talks about the issues, and very sensibly and intelligently, with great ideas for realistic solutions. Why do you keep perpetuating this idea that all she does is bash Reichert? Where are you getting that? Because that is NOT what I'm hearing from her. In fact, quite a few of us in the 8th have encouraged her to talk MORE about Officer Barbrady's record.

It's all Eli ever talks about. Maybe HE'S misinformed about his pet candidate.

Or maybe you're embellishing. One or the other.

Maybe, Gomez, the problem is that you still haven't gotten over your phobia of suburban white women. (It's okay: with appropriate treatment you can get better.)

HAHA, do I kill kittens and hate America too?

Only you can answer those questions, but goodness, I hope not.