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Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Burn on Humanity

Posted by on July 19 at 12:51 PM

Robots make better decisions.

From the NYT:

Studies have shown that models can better predict, for example, the success or failure of a business start-up, the likelihood of recidivism and parole violation, and future performance in graduate school.

They also trump humans at making various medical diagnoses, picking the winning dogs at the racetrack and competing in online auctions. Computer-based decision-making has also grown increasingly popular in credit scoring, the insurance industry and some corners of Wall Street.

The main reason for computers’ edge is their consistency or rather humans’ inconsistency in applying their knowledge.

“People have a misplaced faith in the power of judgment and expertise,” said Greg Forsythe, a senior vice president at Schwab Equity Ratings, which uses computer models to evaluate stocks.


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"Studies have shown that models can better predict, for example, the success or failure of a business start-up, the likelihood of recidivism and parole violation, and future performance in graduate school."

A world that listens to rail-thin starving models is a nightmare that I don't want to live in.

I'm not sure I see how it's a burn on humanity that information processing tools we create are good at the specific tasks we've built them for.

If anything, we have developed a misplaced faith in the power of information technology. Decision-making models can track an enormous amount of data points and their quantifiable relationships, but the ease of their decisions comes from strict limits on what's considered relevant data and ways in which it can be manipulated.

Human judgment and expertise, in essence, are exactly what have been externalized into the frameworks that models operate so well within.

I'm thinking a Robot would make a better President, fersure.

http://www.brutallyhonest.org/photos/uncategorized/gorebot.jpg

If the Seattle Mariners fired manager Mike Hargrove and replaced him with a robot that used sabermetrics to determine lineups and substitutions, the team would probably do much better.

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