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Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Cigarette Sales Up

Posted by on May 10 at 10:23 AM

Despite the smoking ban and a tax hike, cigarette sales in Washington state are up. What could it mean? Well, I guess it means that the mighty power of the dreaded totalitarian nanny state isn’t quite as mighty as handful of Seattle’s desperate, whiny, ever-so-slightly inconvenienced addicts feared. Smokers continue to smoke—they’re apparently smoking more—they just have to step outside to do it, or they can light up at one of the many bars in town that aren’t enforcing the smoking ban too aggressively. (Take it away, Dave Meinert!)


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Perplexing huh?
Couple of things:

1. The smoking ban did not stop or curtail people from smoking.

2. If the ban is hurting business, then why are people smoking more? And where are they smoking more?

Ok, sounds reasonable. But we can not jump to the conclusion that more reported sales means more people smoking. Before you freak out here are a few reasons that could account for the very small increase of sales this quarter over last:

#1: The state has begun cracking down on people buying cigarettes ONLINE. Many more people were buying their cigs online last year thinking they could avoid WA's high sales tax. Now they know that- sooner or later- they will get a bill for all unpaid tax, many are just buying them at their local place.

#2 Tribes have begun honoring agreements to increase prices of cigarettes on tribal land. This would of course remove the incentive some people had to drive out of their way to purchase cigs on tribal land.

#3 WA state has shown a consistant downword trend of smoking prevalence since 1999. There is no reason at all to believe that the rates are not still falling.

So yeah, the jury is out right now.

100,000 extra packs over 52.4 million... I wouldn't call it a jump. More like a lean upward on tiptoes. Still, it's up, which is interesting.

Also, are 2 for 1 pack deals counted as packs sold? I admit I cannot answer with certainty, but if cig companies are increasing the use of these offers, that could play a role.

Things to think about. This is a rather interesting statistic.

Yup, buy 2 get one free. I've got plenty of smokes, Dan, even to spare you. So easy to smoke forever, buying two, getting one free.

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