This morning the Washington Post also strikes a pessimistic tone:
An 18-month recruitment drive by the Democrats has produced nearly a dozen strong candidates with the potential for unseating House Republicans, but probably not enough to take back control of the House absent a massive anti-incumbent wave this fall, according to House political experts.
As I read this story, I wondered whether eastside Democrat Darcy Burner, who’s challenging Republican Congressman Dave Reichert in the 8th District, made the Post’s list of “strong candidates.” She didn’t, although it’s not clear whether she’s seen as one of those who could “ride a wave” of anti-Republican sentiment into office.
“If this election comes down to the individual, race-by-race, case-by-case campaigns, like we’ve seen for the last four cycles, the Democrats don’t have enough top-tier candidates to win 15 seats,” Amy Walters, a House political analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said, referring to a net gain. “But they do have enough second- and third-tier candidates who can ride a wave.”
Political analysts divide the Democratic field into three tiers: the top-ranked challengers who pose a real threat to Republican incumbents, a second level of challengers who have a chance because of the Republicans’ problems nationally and their own competence on the stump, and a third tier of aspirants who have proved to be inept campaigners but who are running in swing districts that are susceptible to change.
There are a good number of Slog readers with strong opinions about Burner. Where do you guys rank Burner on this scale?
UPDATE: Whoops, should have read more closely. The Note points out this handy graphic, in which the Post ranks Burner in the third tier, which is defined as “races in swing districts where Democrats should have recruited stronger candidates.” Ouch.