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Wednesday, November 30, 2005

In Other Military Experts Who Think the Iraq Effort is Screwed…

Posted by on November 30 at 10:10 AM

Joining top-tier international military historian Martin van Creveld (who called the Iraq war the stupidest military move since 9 B.C.see Dan’s post yesterday), researchers at the U.S. Army War College have concluded that America has botched the job beyond repair, and the best-case scenario is “an undemocratic, but stable, Iraq, ruled by factional militias.”

The Wall Street Journal (of all papers) has the depressing story:

But victory may not be in sight next year, according to a new study by Army War College researchers Andrew Terrill and Conrad Crane. The War College, which trains Army officers but does not reflect the views of the Pentagon, has long been pessimistic about the war. In a 2004 study, the War College called it “an unnecessary preventative war” and a “detour” from the war on terrorism. In February 2003, Messrs. Terrill and Crane warned that the invasion of Iraq would produce a growing insurgency, and that disbanding Iraq’s army would only fuel the insurgency, both of which proved prescient. In their new report, they said it was “increasingly unlikely” that the insurgency will be crushed before U.S. troops leave, that it was “no longer clear” that Iraqis would be able to fully secure the entire country on their own and that the best-case scenario was an undemocratic, but stable, Iraq, ruled by factional militias. But they also joined Mr. Bush in opposing a timetable for withdrawal. “The long-term dilemma of the U.S. position in Iraq,” wrote Messrs. Terrill and Crane, “can perhaps best be summarized as: `We can’t stay, we can’t leave, we can’t fail.’”