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Thursday, October 13, 2005

The New New Monorail Plan

Posted by on October 13 at 13:38 PM

On Monday, the Seattle Monorail Project will announce details of its latest plan to pay for the shortened (10.6-mile) monorail line from Interbay (where?) to West Seattle, on the ballot in November. (The SMP board meeting was originally scheduled for tonight, at the end of Yom Kippur, but was pushed back after the Anti-Defamation League, which managed to overlook numerous other local meetings during the holiday, protested.)

The SMP estimates the shortened line will cost $1.7 billion to build, and between $3.9 billion and $6 billion to finance, over 32-39 years. The ranges reflect disagreement over just how much the monorail’s tax base (the total value of cars in Seattle) will grow over the next few decades; the SMP says the value of cars in the city will grow by 6.1 percent every year; the city (and Sound Transit, which does similar estimates) says that’s way too high, and that five percent is more realistic.

All the estimates will be meaningless, of course, if the monorail loses in November, which at least one poll indicates it will. And even if it wins, the SMP will have to reopen negotiations with monorail bidder Cascadia Monorail Company, which has the legal right to walk away from talks on December 15 if the two sides haven’t agreed to a contract.